Toronto's possible Olympic bid could be thwarted by politics, business

The Pan Am Games have just finished, but already attention is turning to Toronto's rumoured ambition to bring the athletic competition's big brother to Canadian soil.

The Canadian Olympic Committee's President Marcel Aubuthas revealed that he will "absolutely lead and advocate with the whole power of my office that Toronto becomes the host city for 2024 Olympic Games."

Toronto Mayor John Tory teased the idea of vying for the Gameslast week, saying any announcement would come after the ParaPan Am Games conclude August 15.

The Games have set Toronto up to host a number of international events, he told CBC News Sunday, but "no decision" has been made.

"I think it's time for a really thoughtful reflection on this and not some kind of, sort of knee-jerk reaction to what have been avery successful Games."

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The city actuallyexpressed publicinterestin the ideaa couple of years ago, but it hasyet to file an official application.

If the speculation is true, Toronto will join the race against Rome, Paris,Budapestand Hamburg, Germany. Any other interested cities canofficially register their candidacy until Sept. 15.

By then, Toronto will have the staging ofthe Pan Am andParaPanAmGamesunder its belt, but that's just one of several factors that can add up to a goodhost city.

Industry watchers saysometimes the International Olympic Committee's final decision on a host city ismore likely tocomedown topolitics,businessor geography.

Leveraging Pan Am success

Toronto's ability to host the OlympicGames isn't in question after its Pan Am run, saysVijaySetlur, a sport marketing instructor at York University'sSchulichSchool of Business in Toronto.

After the games wrap up, several new facilities will remainthat could house future Olympic competitions, such as avelodrome and multipleswimming pools.

Toronto now boasts"a track record on which we can build," says Setlur.

It's a formula with proven results.Rio de Janeiro hosted the Pan Am Games in July 2007 and launched its ultimately successful bid for the 2016Summer Olympics a few months later.

Transportation woes and other obstacles

But the Olympics are a much bigger event. This summer, more than 7,000 athletes from 41 delegations travelled to compete in Toronto. That's at least 3,000 athletes and 164 delegations fewer than what London managed during the 2012 Summer Olympics.

Toronto would have to expand its sports facilities andstrengthen its public transportation to be ready to welcome that influx of people,says Setlur.

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For one thing, the city needs a proper Olympic stadium, says Setlur. Despite seating more than 50,000, the Rogers Centre is deemed too small and doesn't have the right layoutto host summer sports.

Plus, organizers wouldhave to be able to efficiently move athletes and fans around Toronto. While the city created high-occupancy vehicle (HOV)lanes and extendedpublic transit for the Pan Am and ParapanAmGames this summer, Setlur saysToronto would need to fix its traffic congestion issuesas well as ongoing public transit woes.

"The Olympics would definitely be a catalyst for the type of transitinfrastructurethat this region desperately needs."

The city would need to galvanize public support to spend taxpayer dollars this way. The bid process could run the citybetween $50 million and $60 million, while a successful bid could cost up to $6.9 billion, according to a 2014 feasibility report.

The politics behind selection

Buteven if Toronto could deliver on all those fronts, it may still not be enough.

IOC member votes can be influenced by a mixtureoffactors, saysJensSejerAndersen,the international director of Play the Game, a Danish organizationthat works to promote sport ethics. Many of these factors, like business or politics, are out of a bid committee'scontrol.

Some romantics are swayed by proposals that speak to the heart, he says, like Brazil's successful pitch for a festive, happy Rio de Janeiro.

But it's good to remember that the Olympics are also a massive business.

"They're always looking to open up new markets for the games," says Janice Forsyth, former director of Western University's International Centre for Olympic Studies. Thatcould explain why many recent host cities have never staged the Olympics before.

Currently, the IOC is debating whether to hand the2022 Winter Olympics to Almaty, Kazakhstan, or Beijing, China. The latter hosted the 2008 Summer Olympics, buthas never hosted a Winter Games, andwithmore than a billion people who could be inspired to try winter sports, a winning bidcould open"a huge market" for sporting goods manufacturers,saysSejerAndersen.

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That potential revenue,which Kazakhstan'sroughly 18 million population wouldn't be able toprovide,could motivate some IOC decision makers.

IOCmembers with close government ties can alsosuccumb to geopolitical pressures, he says, such as being pressured by their head of state to cast their ballot for a specific host city.

The committee may also want to address geographic parity.

Rio deJaneirowon the 2016 Games, for example, because theyhave never been held in South America before, says Sejer Andersen.

The summer Olympics haven't been to North America since a1996 stint in Atlanta, and haven't been to Canada since Montreal hosted in 1976.

Thinking about the athletes

Sejer Andersen saysthere is also the athletes' best interests to consider. In determining a winning bid,IOC officials cite practical matters such as the distance fromathletes' sleeping quartersto competition sites, the state of sports facilities and the quality of the athletes village.

It's impossible to know which of these factorswill triumph in any given year, says Sejer Andersen.

Setlur saysToronto has one card itcould choose toplay: reminding the IOC of itstwo relatively recentfailed bids, for the 1996 and 2008 events.

"Two times failure," says Setlur,"now three times lucky hopefully."