Seine River part of 'huge hole' in Manitoba NDP strategy, analyst says

The battle to replace outgoing former cabinet minister Theresa Oswald is shaping up to be a tight race in the 2016 provincial election, according to a longtime Winnipeg political scientist.

• Take a spin with candidates vying for Winnipeg's Seine River

The constituency was the twelfth tightest race in the 2011 Manitoba election, when Oswald, then a New Democrat

Incumbency is always a huge advantage- Raymond Hbert, political scientist

incumbent, beat her Progressive Conservative opponent by just 931 votes.

After losing a bitter internal party battle back in March 2015 to lead the NDP, Oswald decided to step away from politics.

• Manitoba NDP leadership: Greg Selinger re-elected, remains premier
• Former rebel NDP cabinet minister Theresa Oswald won't seek re-election in Manitoba

In October 2013, Premier Greg Selinger picked her to be the minister for jobs and the economy. Prior to that, former NDP premier Gary Doer placed her on the health portfolio.

"It might be a major impact," saidRaymondHbert,professor emeritus at l'Universit de Saint-Boniface.

"Incumbency is always a huge advantage for any political party, and when you lose a stalwart like Theresa Oswald you're losing a major actor on the political scene in Manitoba and it can't do otherwise, I think, but hurt the NDP."

'Huge hole in the NDP campaign,' analyst says

Her exit opens up the race at a time when the Selinger New Democrats are already slumping in the polls and trying to rebuild after a divisive leadership contest.

• Manitoba revolt: 5 ministers resign from Premier Greg Selinger's cabinet
• Manitoba NDP caucus meets amid bad polls with election in 2016

Oswald won the last three elections with more than 50 per cent of the vote.

Now she and Erin Selby, next-door NDP MLA for Southdale, are both not seeking re-election.

"I think that's a huge hole in the NDP campaign," Hbert said referring to the pair of south Winnipeg constituencies as "bellwether" constituencies.

He said the two constituencies are critical to any party hoping to form government in Manitoba. In the 1999 and 1995 elections,PC Louise Dacquay won Seine River with fewer than 50 per cent of the votes. The Tories last held power in Manitoba in 1995.

Back then, a surging Liberal party cut into the NDP's support. Hbert said he believes he's seeing a similar recipe this election and a three-way race is emerging.

"When [the NDP has] done well they've headed further and further south," Hbert said. "If [the PCs] don't win [Seine River, Southdale and St. Norbert] then things are looking pretty grim for them."