'Red meat to the base': Trump scores points with supporters by rejecting climate deal

Had President Donald Trump decidedto keep the U.S. inthe Paris climate accord, it would have been a slap in the face tothe very people who put him inoffice,says Republican strategistFordO'Connell.

Instead, standing inthe White House Rose Garden on a hot, humid Washington day, the president said the U.S. was "getting out." And hedelivered the linethat was music to the ears ofhispolitical base: "I was elected to represent the citizens of Pittsburgh, not Paris."

"This got him some political capital, and it got him political capital with the folks who put him over the top," O'Connell said.

Trump's decision sparked a flurry of condemnation from world leaders, including Canada's Justin Trudeau, as well as from Democratsandenvironmentalgroups. Many business leaders, too, including oil giants like Exxon and coal manufacturers, had urged the president to not withdraw fromthe accord.

The U.S., the world's second-largest emitterofgreenhouse gases,willbe joining Syria and Nicaragua as the only countries not part of the climate deal that Trump's predecessor,BarackObama, ratified last October through an executive order.

Putting America first

But to those in his base, the decision willreap some political rewards, O'Connell said.

Thoseare the voters in the industrial Midwest, many of them lifelong Democrats, whoin thepast election shifted to Trump, believing he may be able to stem the hollowing-out of manufacturing jobs in their region.

And to the blue collar workers in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsinand Michigan, a global dealcalling on the U.S. to lower CO2 emissionsis a job killer.

"It is time to put Youngstown, Ohio, Detroit, Michigan, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania along with many, many other locations within our great country,before Paris, France," Trumpsaid.

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The president built his case against the deal,arguing that complying with the emissions-reduction targets the U.S. had set for itself under the accord and the "onerous energy restrictions" those would necessitate could cost the country 2.7 million jobs,including440,000 in manufacturing (figures that come from a study commissioned by the American Council for Capital Formation and the U.S.Chamber of Commerceand have been disputed by some).

"He made the right move politically because he said he was going to put America first, that means including those folks in the equation, incoal countryin theindustrialMidwest," O'Connell said. "Andhe put hismoneywhere his mouth was."

'Red meat to the base'

Evan Siegfried, a Republican strategist but a vocal critic of Trump, nevertheless felt that hemade one of the more effective cases for any decision he has made as president.

"This is the president throwing out red meat to his base," Siegfried said. "They're very happy already on social media at this decision. It shows he's turningto the base to buck him up duringthis time of scandal."

Republicans andconservativestendto show higherlevelsof skepticism about man-made influence onclimate change, meaning Trumpsupporterswill certainly be pleased by his move, said Geoffrey Skelley,political analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

But no matter what decision Trump made, this won't be an issue that will dominate the 2018 midterms, Skelleysaid.

Trump surely would have disappointed some conservativeshad he decided to keep the U.S. in the climate deal, Skelley said. However, there are other issues that are more likely to animate Republicans, including scrapping Obamacare and taking further action on immigration.

"So, I'm not really sure just how much of a political windfall Trump will gain from leaving," he said. "I don't think it's a necessarily make-or-break issue of some kind for him politically, at least in terms of his own supporters."

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While some surveys suggest that Americans by and large supported staying in the Parisaccord, other pollshave suggested that tackling climate change is a low priority.

However, pulling out of the Paris accord will certainly feed the growing flames of the resistance movement to Trump and his agenda,AnthonyLeiserowitz, director of the Yale Program on ClimateChange Communication,said in anemailto CBC.

"That may spell trouble for vulnerable Republican members of Congress in 2018," he said.

'Political liability'

Democratic strategistBrad Bannonsaid he doesn't believe Trump cares that much what critics think of his decisionand that he's justintent on playing to his base. While agreeing that climate change is a low priority for Americans, Bannon said the decision will still hurt the president.

"It's definitely a political liability for Trump, but it's on the lower end of the 'Why I hate Trump' list."

Skelley agreed that it's another issue for Democrats and the political left to rally around.

"In the short term, I'mnot sure if it has much of an effect.Just add it to the laundry list [of decisions] that Democrats are ticked off with the president for."

Over on Capitol Hill, shortly after Trump had made his announcement, North Carolina tourist JoeVeedock said he believed the president's decision hurts him and the country.

"I think there are diehard supporters who will support him no matter what," he said.

Jo Salm, a tourist from Germany, saidTrump will receive criticism from the international community. But,Salm said,many of those abroad who are criticizing Trump don't understand the concerns of U.S. voters and the rationale for Trump's decision.

"There's a large voter community who voted for Trump who don't care about climate change at all," he said. "They care about jobs;they care about keeping money in the U.S.; they care about globalization and theway it hurts them when factories are shut.

"So, I think on the national stage, this will help [Trump]."