Why smart money is still investing in Canadian houses: Don Pittis

Sorry, young house hunters. It turns out the overpriced home you were hoping to buy isn't just a place to live.

Now, maybe more thanever, houses area financial investment.

And while that may not be good for young Canadians hoping to get into the market, there are no signs new government rules willchange that in the short term.

• Chinese bought $1.3B of Canadian commercial real estate
• B.C. to end self-regulation of real estate industry
• Mortgage professionalsseeno housing bubble

In fact, a new flood of money into the global economy from central banks in an attempt to counteract the depressing effect ot the Brexitvote only makes putting cash intoreal estatea sounder financial investment.

'No bubble'derision

That partly depends on how you define a bubble.

But despite repeated promises by governments to intervene, there are increasing signs that the smart money from around the world and from right here at home thinks that in the current climate, real estate remainsa good investment. And as long as that is so, house prices will stay strong.

Hesitant measures

Although there are tools the government could use to put the lid on property prices, they are far beyond the scope of any of the hesitant measures proposed so far.

Even the most stringent changes in the law, such as B.C.s move to wrench regulation away from theindustry and put it into the hands of an outside body, will do nothing to stop the strongglobal economic forces that are pushing prices ever higher in our most international cities.

Issue of fairness

Although loose practices in real estate agencies may contribute a little to higher prices, theyare more a matter of fairness than a key cause of property demand.

• Watch out,Yellen tells Canadian homeowners

I have passed on warnings from U.S. central bank chair Janet Yellen that interest rates were on the way up. The warning stands, but only as a conditional statement:If interest rates start to rise,watch out.

But suddenly this year the prospect for a surging U.S. economy that needs to be quelled with higher interest rates seems completely off the table. In the wake of the vote by the United Kingdom to pull out of the European Union, the expectation of higher rates seems even less likely than a month ago.

"Traders, who have consistently been better at projecting the path of interest rates than the Fed itself, are now pricing in a greater probability that policy makers will cut rates in upcoming meetings than raise them," says a report from the Bloomberg business news service.

In fact, according to market traders, Yellen is now unlikely to raise rates until 2018.

Meanwhile across the pond, Bank of England governor Mark Carney specifically told us last weekthat he expects to inject more stimulus andprevent a credit crunch.

Deteriorating outlook

"In my view," said Carney on Thursday,"the economic outlook has deteriorated and some monetary policy easing will likely be required over the summer."

European interest rates are already negative. British and U.S. rates are falling or stagnant.If thosecountries are creating new money, China and many others will inevitablyjoin theparty.

As noted previously,we are in this strange new world where interest rates are far less than inflation andmoney has becomefree. You may not have any, but those who do don'tseemquite sure what to do with it all.

• Desperately seeking economic health

Everywhere in the world, people with money are trying to turnit into something real. That has made stocks rise despite weak profits. It has made real estate prices rise despite rents that are not keeping pace.

Unlike other assets like gold, houses have a real value. They offer protection from the weather. They offer comfort and prestige.

In a world where there is a glut of money that in financial terms has next tono value, it remains absolutely smart to take money you have (or money you can borrow for next to nothing) and use it to buy something that has a real value, even if that value is uncertain.

Pitchforks and torches?

Many people have warned that low rates are creating problems in our financial markets and even in our society including real estate prices unrelated to incomesand eventually something is going to break. Maybe a bubble will pop.So far that has not happened.

Perhaps the metaphorical peasants, in this case young Canadians who want houses, will one dayrise with their metaphorical pitchforks and torches.

But until something significant changes in the global economy, or until the government takes some action to make housinga bad financial investment, money will likely continue to find its way into property, and prices will rise.

Follow Don on Twitter@don_pittis

More analysisby Don Pittis