Growing grey wave set to crash on Alberta trades

With the retirement of thousands of tradespeople looming through the middle of the next decade, Alberta's oil and gassector could soon facenewshortages for skilled labour,reigniting calls for more peopleto enlistin the trades to help fill the future gap.

Jim Carter, a former presidentofSyncrude and advocate for trades education, says arising tide of baby boomers nearing retirement age is one reasonindustry needs more people to enter the skilledtrades.

The downturn also may have scared off some prospective students from the energy industry, which wouldaggravatethe situation.

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"When we're in these downturns, we kind of tend to think that there aren't going to be any job opportunities because everything slowed down," said Carter,board chair ofCAREERS: The Next Generation, a group funded by government and industry to raise awareness about opportunities in trades and other occupations.

"What we keep forgetting is every year that goes by, that workforce is getting a year older and a year closer to retirement, andso when you've got a bit of a bulge, like we had with the baby boomers coming through... you're going to see that sort of unfolding over the course of the next five years.

"That's going to create opportunities for young people."

The call for students to enter the trades may sound familiar.

More than a decade ago, a massive construction boom across the province and in the oilsandsfired up huge demand for more young people to explore careers such aspipefitter andelectrician.

But a few yearslater, thousands of jobs were lost in the wake of the 2014 oil price crash that saw companies slashpositions as they soughtnew efficiencies and cut costs.

Carter said that with major investments being made in the oilsandsin recent years, there will be demand for the skilled labour who can maintain those facilities during their operation over several decades.

Suncor's Fort Hills oilsandsmining facility, for example, has an expected 50-year lifespan.

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"There's a lot of work to be done to maintain those facilities," Cartersaid.

"While we've been in this downturn for the last two or three years, really since 2014 when crude oil prices plummeted, we've all kind of gone to sleep on the fact that the demographics have been shifting."

He said it's not just the energy sector that will need tradespeople in the years ahead, either.

Indeed, though Alberta's workforce isrelatively young, it is aging.

According to provincial statistics, Albertansaged 55 to 64 made up 15 per cent of Alberta's working-age population in 2016, compared to 12 per cent in 2006.

Alberta's Department ofLabour anticipatesmore than 3,000 workers will retire in the trades, transport and equipment operators, and related occupations each year from 2016 to 2025.

"In terms of the grey wave that's coming or thegrey wave that may be upon us there's definitely that demographic shift that is underway," saidJim Szautner, dean of the School of Manufacturing and Automation at the Southern Alberta Institute of Technology.

"That is absolutely going to open up a significant amount of opportunity for people who want to get into the trades and want to get into those kinds of careers."

But filling those trades jobs won't be easy, and isn't Alberta's struggle alone.

It's a challenge across North America, said Benjamin Tal,deputy chief economist of CIBC World Markets.

"Clearly, it's everywhere we have a mismatch in the labour market," Talsaid.

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"We have companies desperately looking for people,not only PhDs and computer engineers, but plumbers and electricians. And we cannot find them. This mismatch is why we have a labour market that is not functioning."

He said many people are getting degrees for jobs that the labour market doesn't need. He believes Canada should follow the lead of countries like Germany and Sweden where students get degrees and are certified in a trade.

"The labour market is changing at the speed of light and the education system is behaving like nothing happened," he said. "We have to re-think the way educate people and it's not just about computer engineering, it's also about trades."

Tal said the lack of qualified labour is a significant issue, one that limits the potential economic growth.

"This is a major issue that affects all of us," he said.

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