Zero-emission rules mean fewer electric car choices for most Canadians: Don Pittis

Canadians trying to buy the electric vehicle of their choicein many parts of the countryarefinding it almost impossible and a provincial strategyintended to get more green cars onto dealers' lotsmay actually make the problem worse.

The strategy called a zero-emissionvehicle standard, or"ZEVmandate" hasalready been imposed in Quebec.

There are now widespread rumours that British Columbia could announce a similar scheme within days as part of a promise to help balance out the greenhouse gas deficit produced by the province's planned $40-billion liquefied natural gas plantin Kitimat.

That sucking sound

Unless the federal government moves ahead with a promised national ZEVmandate of its ownquicklysomething critics think is unlikelygreen car advocates fear theprovincial schemes will merely suck electric vehicles out of other parts of the Canadian market in order to beef up sales in B.C. and Quebec without increasing the total nationalsupply.

That doesn't meanZEV mandates aren't potent policy tools withinthe jurisdictions that impose them, saysDan Woynillowicz, policy director with Clean Energy Canada, a think-tank at Simon Fraser University.

"California has been the pioneer with a zero-emission vehicle mandate," saidWoynillowicz. "It's been very successful, and as a resultmore than a dozen other states, plus Quebec here in Canada, have adopted similar policies."

Meant to influence the market without distorting it too much, ZEVrulesdiffer from jurisdiction to jurisdiction.But inprinciple,ZEVstandards have a singleintent.

"The standard seeks to spur the supply of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) and low-emission vehicles (LEVs) to afford consumers access to greater numbers and a broader range of plug-in motor vehicles, which are the cleanest and the most technically advanced on the market," readsa Quebec government website.

Despite a handy explanatory leaflet,ordinary car-buyers mayfind the complexities of the rules heavy.

But in essence,ZEVsystems are put in place as an attempt tocounterbalance market forces that have made sellinginternal combustion engine (ICE) cars more profitable for automakers than selling electrics.

Please don't buy our cars

The late Fiat Chrysler bossSergio Marchionneoncenotoriously asked customers not to buy the company's battery-powered Fiat 500ebecause the business lost money on every onesold, although he reversed that view shortly before his death.

While electrics are cheaper for consumers over the life of the car, automakershave been able to make more money selling cars manufactured in old plants using established technology.Dealer repair shopsmake more from combustion-engine vehicle maintenance since, by comparison, electrics have so few moving parts.

What ZEVmandates do is force carmakers to increase the percentage of ZEVs and LEVs sold year after year. Andif they fail to meet those rising quotas, it forces them to pay what the rules describe as a "royalty."

That means the most profitable thing car companies can do in the short term is to hold steadythe total supply of Canadian electric carsand merely sell more of them in ZEVjurisdictions.In other words,inQuebecand in B.C.

"Most electric vehicles that are earmarked for the Canadian marketarelikely be goingto be going to those two provinces," said Woynillowicz.

The federal government has considered a national plan, with aTransport Canada announcementlast year going so far as to promiseto develop aCanada-widestrategy to increase the number of ZEVson Canadian roads "by 2018."

But according to insiders, an advisorygroup that included carmakers and environmentalists becamedeadlockedand the group's report has not been released.

Global shortage

Industry representatives make it clear they don't like pressure from the sudden imposition ofZEVrules.

David Adams, the president of the industry group Global Automakers of Canada,called the possibility of a ZEV scheme in B.C. "disconcerting," partly because there just aren't enough cars to go around.

"The supply issue is a global issue that is going to be with us for two or three more years," he said in a recent interview.

Ontario electric car expert Cara Clairman has a certain sympathy for an industry that hasbeen surprised and overwhelmed by the demand for battery-powered vehicles.

"To be honest, it's just so much cheaper," saidClairman, the CEO of Plug'nDrive, a non-profit organization sponsored by the electricand automotive industries thatpromotes electric cars.

The Toronto resident has driven her ownChevy Bolt to Montreal, Ottawa and Windsor.

Clairman saidshe has noticed more cars being shipped to Quebec since the provinceadopted a ZEV mandate, but she also notes that places like California have electric carsshe's never seen available in Canada.

"Those jurisdictions with a ZEVmandate tend to get the supply when there's a limited number," she said.

People shopping for an electricoutside Quebec have found some carsincludingthe Volkswagen e-Golfand any of the Ford electrics hard to come by. But some car companiesincluding Mitsubishi, whose Outlander plug-in-hybrid isbilled as the world's best-selling electric SUV planned ahead and currently has a plentiful supply on dealer lots.

Companies that lead the way on producing enough electrics will win in the long run, Clairman said.But for others, it's possible the ZEVmandate is necessaryto twist a few arms.

"I think, for quite awhile, most of theautomakersdidn't want itbecause they said, 'We'll make sure the supply is there.' But if the supply isn't there, I think there becomes more and more public pressure to have a ZEVmandate."

Follow Don on Twitter @don_pittis

The 'ZEVmandate' versusthe 'CAFE standard'

Those with a passing familiarity with the rules to make cars less pollutingmay be confused between the ZEVmandate and the existing CAFE standard, which stands for "corporate average fuel economy," that U.S. President Donald Trump has moved to abolish.While the two sets of rules overlap in encouraging greater fuel efficiency, some experts, including those advising the State of California,say the ZEVdoes not replace the need for the CAFE. While the ZEVmandate gradually increases the percentageof zero and low-emission cars on the road, the CAFE standard requires greater efficiency in the entire fleet. "When we talk about a zero-emission mandate requiring one in three cars sold 12 years from now be electric, that means that even 12 years from now, two out of threebeing sold will have a gasoline engine," saidDan Woynillowicz. If that occurred, the majority of cars sold could include the highest polluting vehicles so long as automakersfind themprofitable.In theory, saidCara Clairman,after many more years, you will have enough electric cars on the road that the effect wouldbe the same."But I don't think California would ever go for that," she said.