COVID-19 hospitalizations are at record highs in B.C. Here's what we know

For the past several weeks, the number of hospitalizations in B.C. due to COVID-19 has hitrecord numbers and with it, concern from experts that numbers will continue to spike, with doctors and nurses becoming too overwhelmed with new patients to effectively treat them.

"Right now, we have the capacity, but it's very important that we act to try and flatten the curve as quickly as possible using the tools at our disposal," said Vancouver Infectious Disease Centre medical director Dr. Brian Conway.

An independent COVID-19 modelling group in B.C. has released a reportwarning of the potential of more than 3,000 people in hospitals within a month if transmission levels stay at the levelsthey were at March.

Here's what we can say at this currentmoment.

What are the numbers?

As of April 14, there were an all-time high 397 people hospitalized withCOVID-19 in B.C. An all-time high 120 of those people were also in critical care, still testing positive for the virus.

That last part is important: it effectively means that while the province'stotal is correct, the critical care number could appear misleading, as there can be people still in ICU wards who entered for COVID-19, but are no longer counted in the critical care number, still causing stress on the critical care system.

The total number of people in hospital and testing positive in critical care units are both at record highs in the pandemic, and the number of new people entering critical care each week is at a higher point than the second wave from around 35-45 each week in the 2nd wave to between 50 and 70 a week in the 3rd wave.

"With the number of cases going up to record levels, it is not surprising that hospitalizations are increasing in parallel with this," said Conway.

Are young people being hospitalized more?

However, some of the anecdotes about a dramatic shift in hospitalizations to young people do not appear to be borne out by the data, at least so far.

In the most recent week of available data from March 27 to April 3, just 19 per cent of new hospital patients were under the age of 50, compared to 25 per cent for the entire pandemic.

But there has been a rise in overall COVID-19 cases across B.C., and with that, the overall number of people under 50 needing hospitalization has also gone up 40 of them in the last week of available data, the highest in the pandemic.

"We're seeing a slight decrease in the average age of people hospitalized, simply because the most vulnerable population in terms of [age] have by-and-large been immunized and are thankfully not part of the current wave as they were a year ago," said Conway.

Data provided from the B.C. government hasshown a slightly higher rate of hospitalization among people 50 and older that were infected witha variant, but the sample size providedwas small.

Where are hospitalizations happening?

And just as the age distribution of hospitalizations isn't dramatically changing, neither is the geographical distribution.

In the last 12 days, 212 people in Fraser Health have been hospitalized for COVID-19, compared to 206 in the rest of the province. At the same time, the region has just three core hospitals for COVID-19 care Royal Columbian, Surrey Memorial, and Abbotsford Regional which is less than Vancouver Coastal Health.

"This is a challenge we need to face, understanding it a bit better, [in order] to intervene to control the pandemic in Fraser Health a bit better and a bit more efficiently," said Conway, who argued the province should consider prioritizing the region for vaccinations in the coming weeks to reduce community transmission.

The province has already postponed a few surgeries in Fraser Health and Vancouver Coastal Health due to the increase in hospitalizations, but the Ministry of Health was unable to provide data on the number of available beds at itscore COVID-19 hospitals.

"We haven't really touched that surge occupancy yet, but we're taking steps," said Health Minister Adrian Dix, calling it a "significant pressure" on the system.

Dix also said the province may choose to "pivot, pause or shift our delivery to maximize protection to as many people as possible," but has said the age-based approach to immunizations that has mostly been utilized will remain the status quo.

For the moment, Conway worries where hospitalization numbers will go if the average of daily new cases doesn't start decreasing soon.

"If that does not occur, [we need] to enhance the measures that are in place to flatten the curve more uniformly and decisively."