How 6 new ridings have changed the B.C. election map in 2024

Work crews have been busy in theBritishColumbia Legislature over the summer, prying apart desks in the historic chamber and piling them up in hallways as they tried to work out how to fit in six more seats.

The renovation, with an estimated budget of $300,000, including new red carpet, was needed to accommodate 93 members of the legislature who will be sitting there after the Oct. 19 provincial election.

The carpenters and carpet layers weren't the only ones pondering changes necessitated by the province's rapidly growing population.B.C.'s major parties are also gearing up to fill those extra seats with help from voters in urban and suburban settings.

Thesix additional seatsare all in major population centres in southernB.C.

Four are in the Metro Vancouver communities of Langley, Surrey, Burnaby and Vancouver, one is in the Victoria suburb of Langford, and another is in the urban core of Kelowna.

"These are the areas where the province is growing and the population requires additional representation to maintain that representation-by-population," said Stewart Prest, a political science lecturer at the University ofBritishColumbia.

"So, that's the general reason why we're seeing this redrawing of the map, and it's worth noting that it really places additional weight on the need for parties to win votes in the urban areas of the province."

Geographical influence

David Black, an associate professor of communication and culture at Royal Roads University, said it would be a mistake to automatically assume the new urban seats will favour left-leaning parties such as the NDP.

Black said geographical factors create regional political leanings in places such as the Fraser Valley and the Okanagan, where centre-right parties have been favoured.

"I think this pattern holds in the sense that Langley and Kelowna are not the same as Burnaby, Surrey or even Langford, given how close Langford is to GreaterVictoria," he said.

"What we know from the political science literature is that where you live has a lot to do with how you vote. We think of the left-right spectrum as a political scale, but it is as much geographical as it is ideological.

"Places can choose people because places cluster qualities and features that amplify and direct people toward certain voting preferences."

Urban advantage

However, Black said the trend over decades inB.C. showed a provincial electorate moving left, on average.

He said the best evidence of that came in the 2017 provincial election, when the NDP held on to 40 per cent of the popular vote despite another left-leaning party theB.C. Greens garnering almost 17 per cent.

"The fact that the NDP was able to hold 40, even losing that much on their left with the Green Party at 17, suggests to me that this axis which used to be centre-right has tilted about five percentage points to the left," Black said, noting population growth was happening mostly in urban centres.

"This phenomenon whereby people in cities tend to vote, more or less, leaning NDP or Green, for that matter is the reason I believe we've seen this tilt."

Black said this demographic trend put an imperative on centre-right parties to speak to urban voters more because "that's where the ridings are."

He said in an interview in mid-August that while poll numbers for the Conservatives had surged, seat projections on tracking sites still indicated a sizable advantage to the New Democrats due to the number of urban ridings.

"The Conservatives, according to the poll data, are running up the popular vote totals enormously well over 50 per cent in the north, but there are relatively few ridings up there," Black said. "Whereas the NDP is more competitive in the cities,where of course there are more ridings."

Effects of boundary changes

Prest cautioned against assuming an NDP advantage.

"They still need to maintain those links with those voters," he said of the party and voters in the new ridings. "And it also creates opportunities for other parties to try to make inroads, as well."

The new district boundaries had also meant vast changes in electorate composition for some existing ridings, compared with the last election.

"There's going to be, I think, a certain amount of reacquainting necessary for voters when they come to pay attention to who is running to represent them in the election," Prest said, adding even small boundary changes can make a big difference in a close vote.

"Every neighbourhood can make a little bit of difference at the margins," he said. "And it is specifically at those ridings where essentially the town or the city meets the country, if you like where the urban meets the suburban or rural areas of the province that [boundary]changes can have a real effect."

A closer look

Here is a look at some of the new seats:

Vancouver

The biggest change in Vancouver is the creation of three seats from an area largely covered by Vancouver-False Creek and Vancouver-Fairview in the last election.

The new ridings are Vancouver-Yaletown, Vancouver-South Granville and Vancouver-Little Mountain.

The NDP'sBrenda Bailey, who won Vancouver-False Creek in 2020, is now running in Vancouver-South Granville.

The NDP's George Heyman, who previously held Vancouver-Fairview, is not running in this election.

In Vancouver-Little Mountain, the NDP is represented by city Coun. Christine Boyle , while theB.C. Conservatives are running with former park board commissioner and mayoral candidate John Coupar.

The B.C. Conservatives have named former councillor Melissa De Genova as their candidate in Vancouver-Yaletown, going up against NDPcandidate Terry Yung, a former Vancouver police officer.

Burnaby-New Westminster

The area's seat count rises from five to six, with the new Burnaby-New Westminster riding created from portions of surroundingridings Burnaby-Edmonds, New Westminster and Burnaby-Lougheed.

The area's ridings are now Burnaby Centre, Burnaby East, Burnaby-New Westminster,Burnaby North, Burnaby South-Metrotown, New Westminster-Coquitlam.

The NDP took all five previous seats comfortably in 2020 and the party has done well in the areain recent years.

All but one of the NDP incumbents are running for re-election. They includeRaj Chouhan, who is facing the B.C. Conservatives' Deepak Suriin New Westminster;Jennifer Whiteside in New Westminster-Coquitlam, running against the B.C. Conservatives'Ndellie Massey;and Anne Kang, who is running against the Conservatives' Dharam Kajalin Burnaby Centre.

Surrey

Surrey is gainingone seat, Surrey-Serpentine River, but also sees big changes to its district boundaries. Surrey-Green Timbers and Surrey-Whalley have been reorganized into two new ridings, Surrey City Centre and Surrey North.

Surrey-Serpentine River was created from parts of nearby districts, including Surrey-Cloverdale, Surrey-Panorama and Surrey-Fleetwood.

The NDP won seven of nine Surrey-area seats in 2020, picking up Surrey-Cloverdale, which had historically favoured the former B.C. Liberal Party.

All but two of the incumbent NDP candidates are running for re-election, with Surrey-Newton's Harry Bains and Surrey-Whalley's Bruce Ralston stepping aside.

Former Surrey mayor Linda Hepneris running for theB.C. Conservatives in Surrey-Serpentine River, where she will facethe NDP's BaltejSingh Dhillonwho made history as the first RCMP officer to be allowed to wear a turban as part of his uniform and Independent James McMurtry.

High-profile B.C. United defector Elenore Sturkois running as aB.C. Conservative in Surrey-Cloverdale, where she will face the NDP's Mike Starchuk,Pat McCutcheonof the B.C. Greens and Judy Meilleurwith theFreedom Party of B.C.

Langley

Langley's two seats in the 2020 election have been split into three, with the creation of Langley-Willowbrook, Langley-Walnut Grove and Langley-Abbotsford.

The NDP scored major victorieshere in 2020, winning both seats that had been held by the B.C. Liberals for decades.

Both incumbents Megan Dykeman and Andrew Mercier return, and are joined by former federal Liberal MP John Aldag, who resigned from Parliament in May to run for the B.C. NDP in Langley-Abbotsford, where he will faceHarman Bhanguof the B.C. Conservatives

Dykeman is up againstLangley Township Coun. Misty van Popta, running for the B.C. Conservatives, in Langley-Walnut Grove, while Mercierfaces the Conservatives' Jody Toor.

Langford

Greater Victoria's additional seat comes in the suburb of Langford, where Langford-Highlands was carved out mostly from Langford-Juan de Fuca, with the rest of that district renamed Juan de Fuca-Malahat for this fall's election.

The area is considered an NDP stronghold, with Langford-Juan de Fuca held by former premier John Horgan from 2009 to 2023.

Langford-Highlands will be contested bythe NDP'sRavi Parmarand Mike Harris of the B.C. Conservative Party.

Kelowna

A new electoral district, Kelowna Centre, was created from parts of three surrounding ridings: Kelowna-Mission, Kelowna West and Kelowna-Lake Country.

The latter two have also been renamed West Kelowna-Peachland and Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream to reflect other boundary changes.

The area was traditionally a stronghold for the B.C. Liberals, which won all three seats comfortably in 2020. But none of the incumbents are running this year.

The candidates in Kelowna Centre are city councillor andRegional District of Central Okanagandirector Loyal Wooldridge, who is running for the B.C. NDP; Kristina Loewen for theB.C. Conservatives; and former B.C. United candidate Michael Humer, who will run as an unaffiliated Independent.

Gavin Dew, who ran for the leadership of the B.C. Liberals in 2022, is running for the B.C. Conservatives in Kelowna-Mission, where he will facethe B.C.NDP's Harpreet Badohaland another former B.C. United candidate, Ashley Ramsay.