The Alberta NDP is probably toast but here's how they could give themselves a fighting chance

The Alberta NDP is probably toast.

In making that statement, of course, I have probably created an inexorable split in the probability tree of the infinite number of living universes, thus ensuring that the NDP will win the 2019 election and this column will be thrown at me by future readers eager to prove my incompetence.

So that opening statement must be buttressed by some necessary caveats.

It's a reasonable prediction based on a straightforward reading of an extensive poll conducted by CBC News for The Road Ahead series.

• Read more from the Road Ahead series

But polls in and of themselves aren't predictions. They are simply snapshots of public opinion captured in time, like an ancient sea snail preserved in a mudslide.

By the time we dig out the fossil to study, we're looking at an artifact of a world that has passed.

Weird politics

Politics in Alberta is weird. Nothing here is predictable and I am often wrong,although I try to be entertaining, at least. But these numbers are pretty damning. It's not just the typically variable horserace nonsense that paint a grim picture for the province's governing party.

It's everything.

The poll of 1,200 Albertans found that the United Conservative Party (UCP) is ahead of the NDP,53 per cent versus 29. The two loosely defined "centrist" parties, the Liberals and the Alberta Party, round out the margins with sixand 11 per cent support, respectively.

Thatin and of itselfmight be no cause for the NDP to panic. But the deeper one digs into the numbers, the sunnier they begin to look for UCP leader Jason Kenney.

Consider, for instance, that 69 per cent ofUCP supporters said they are "very firm" in their intentions to vote for their preferred party.

The level of "very firm" support among NDPvoters, by comparison, was 51 per cent.

• United Conservative Party on track to win big in Alberta, says poll

The UCPis also perceived to be most competent, by wide margins, on the issues that Albertans care most about right now:the economy, pipelinesand defending Alberta's interests.

That is no shock.

What is shockingis that the NDP has little credibility among the issues that should be core for the party:health and education.

More Albertans think the UCP would do a better job managing those files than the NDP.

As John Santos, one of the data scientists who compiled and analyzed the research, noted:"If you can't win on home ice..."

Yes. If you can't win on home ice, well, fill in the blank.

Premier Rachel Notley seems to have acquired some points for her recent campaigns for the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline, but not much. It's too little too late and the line looks as much in peril as ever.

• Albertans aren't as conservative as you might think, poll suggests

Playing nice with a new regulatory regime that places abstract and unobtainable concepts like "social licence" above objective technical merits and clear standards of consultation has resulted, predictably, in political inertia that is costing Alberta billions in lost royalties as the province struggles to emerge from a recession.

Ottawa and Alberta bothnoware struggling to fix this mess by talking about forking over taxpayer cash for Trans Mountain to buy some investor confidence. That may offer this line a short term fix, but the problems of investor confidence and regulatory uncertainty will take years to repair, if ever.

The economy in Alberta is improving, but not quickly enough. Unemployment levels are still high especially considering the province's demographics. The real estate market is a death march. People aren't feeling spring just yet.

Notley only seems to have caught her political stride in the past six months, and there is no sense that the necessary momentum will build in time for a win by election season next year.

If the economy remains top trump, Notley's fate will hinge not only on the province's continued recovery, but on whether or not Albertans start to feel more optimistic about how that recovery is benefiting them personally.

'We're a province ofpopulist socialists'

That said, there are a few things theNDPcould try to put a spin on the ball, although much will be beyond their control.

Albertans even UCP supporters are overwhelmingly opposed to major cutbacks in government services. In the poll, 78 per cent of respondents agreed that"now is not a good time to make significant cuts to social programs such as health and education."

To my personal chagrin, Albertans also seem to be largely indifferent to balancing the province's books. Just 58 per cent believed "Alberta should have a balanced budget," while 38 per cent agreed that "running a deficit at this time is appropriate."

Notley could use these sentiments to dramatically shore up health and education spending and management. The NDP would need to consider serious and flashy investments and improvements in these areas.

Despite Alberta's reputation as a conservative province, when actually polled on specific questions about how the economy should be structured, research shows we're a province ofpopulist socialists.

Albertans are shockingly skeptical about the efficiency of the free market.

Even many social conservatives have a collectivist bent when it comes to government handouts.

The two most popular premiers in Alberta's history, Ralph Klein and Peter Lougheed, are telling symbols of the weirdly dual nature of this province's political instinct.

The former blew up hospitals and eliminated the debt. The latter instituted grand investment and nationalization schemes that even the modern-day NDP would deem excessive.

Just as the economy goes boom-bust, so do our political inclinations.

The case for killing the carbon tax

Government-led programs espousing economic diversification are a terrible idea for lots of economic and practical reasons but the NDP might connect with some voters by playing to their own Prairie populist roots.

The last thing the NDP will need to consider in the coming year is abolishing their own carbon tax the jewel of their own climate change planand using that as a bludgeon against Ottawa.

The odds of them doing this are exceptionally small.

• Albertans see their economy as 'held hostage' and 'too dependent on oil' and yet, 'improving slowly'

There are many moral arguments in favour of Alberta taking a leadership role in addressing climate change. Further, the last budget funnels excess carbon tax revenue back into the budget, as the province struggles to achieve balance.

But consider:the carbon tax has failed to win consensus from the rest of Canada for Alberta's oil and gas industry, and 66 percent of Albertans overall think we should get rid of it.

That belief is surprisingly broad-based.

A full quarter of NDP supporters are opposed to it. Between 55 per cent and 62 per cent of Liberal and Alberta Party supporters alsoare anti-carbon tax. Those centrist voters are the ones Notley is going to need to win over if she hopes to have even a fighting chance.

Not only would getting rid of the carbon tax remove one of Kenney's most effective rhetorical cudgels, but if Notley abolished it as a consequence for Ottawa's impotenceon Trans Mountain, this would send a powerful signal to Albertans, whoshe is fighting for.

I don't know if any of these measures would be enough to put the NDP within spitting distance of another win. However, as a pundit, I confess I have a vested material and intellectual interest in a competitive and interesting election cycle.

There's neither honour nor profit in an easy win.

Calgary: The Road Aheadis CBC Calgary's special focus on our city as we build the city we want the city we need. It's the place for possibilities. A marketplace of ideas. So. Have an idea? Email us at: calgarytheroadahead@cbc.ca.

More from the series:

• OPINION |If we want to get off the royalty roller-coaster, we should cut every Albertan a cheque
• OPINION |Brian Jean's legacy: What we got, and what JasonKenneycould have had
• OPINION |Why young men are being left out of Alberta's economic recovery

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