There's a whole lot of unanswered questions around the new arena and entertainment district

EDITOR'S NOTE: We asked urban writer Richard White what questions he had about the proposed entertainment district in Calgary, and the possibility of a new arena. We'd like to hear yours too. Feel free to leave them in the comments section below this article.

What happens if we spend hundreds of millions on revamping the area around Victoria Park and the area around the Stampede grounds trying to turn it into a dynamic, new, private-money-generating entertainment district and the whole damn thing withers on the vine?

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A new arena, an expanded BMO Centre and an expanded and renovated Arts Commons. Fancy new hotels, dozens of funky condos and a street full of bars andrestaurants.

City council discussed the proposal last Monday, and then, deciding it needed more information, sent it back to administrators. Obviously, they still have questions that need answers.After years of writing on urban development in Calgary, I have my own.

We need to go into this with our eyes wide open.

Who are the 'stakeholders'?

The Ernst and Young (EY) report on the project that the city is using as a baseline is a little loosey-goosey for my liking.

First, it says if the city spends money it will have a positive impact on the city's economy and attract private investment. Really? You could invest a billion bucks anywhere in the city and it would have a positive impact.

Second, we need to know who EY talked to for this report. Who said what?

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They onlylist government agencies as the key stakeholders.Did they talk to residential and commercial developers?

I have no idea what their rationale was for saying the area might attract 8,000 new residential units and 250,000 square feet in retail development. Has someone committed to something? Has there been a formal expression of interest? Or is this more of a hope?

Then there'sthe new arena and we should really stop calling this anything other than an arena.

As of yet, no one has really shown how a new arena would draw in anything (other than a few concerts) that the Saddledome doesn't already bring in. I doubt the existing ice shows, monster truck shows or circus shows really care.

The new arena is all about what the Flames want, full stop.

And the question remains: Who, exactly, is going to pay for what they want?

Big money, big risk

Another problem with this plan is thatif we're in for a penny, we're in for a pound.

The EY report showcases the creation of new, successful, sports and entertainment districts in Edmonton, Columbus, Denver and Nashville.

But and this is a big but the reason these areas worked is because they were part of a new cluster of facilities. So, if city council does this, it has to do all of it.

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For the project to work, public money from all levels of government would need to mix with the right level of private money.

It's some very big cash, and thus a very big risk that all the economic factors will line up.

And let's talk about cannibalizing other development.

Add here, take away there

Drawing a lot of new development into one small part of town will take away from other parts of town.

There is only so much private development cash to go around. If you're knocking up a huge condo in the new entertainment district, you're not going to be putting another in say, Crowfoot.

Thus, a revamped Victoria Park area will be competing with other parts of town. Say, East Village, which is unfinished and already showing signs of slowing development.

The same goes for bars and restaurants. Would new bars concentratedin the entertainment district draw people away from those on 17th Avenue? On Fourth Street? Stephen Avenue?

On the plus side, I think the expansion of the BMO Centre makes sense, as it is a natural evolution of the building and its operations. I love incremental growth.

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However, one has to wonder what that means for the future of the Calgary Telus Convention Centre. Does the city need both facilities? If not, then what?

And while it would be nice to have a couple of new hotels near the BMO Centre, these too would potentially draw business away from other, existing hotels.

Then there is the whole design of this plan.

Community and cash

I have been advocating for a while that Victoria Park and the area near the Stampede grounds need to become a vibrant residential community, not just an entertainment/cultural district, which, by the way, it already is.

But are high-rise towers really the answer?

The current rendering in the master plan for the area shows dozens of what look like high-rise residential towers bunched up in Victoria Park.

It's density, but not good density. High-rises don't make for pedestrian friendly streets.

While there are other development plans for this entertainment district, which look at urban design, it's unclear how the EY report links to the Beltline plan, the Stampede/Victoria Park master plan, and the city centre plan under review.

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Whatever the level of risk, it needs to be made clear.

For those who think Victoria Park is going to miraculously fill up with new residents flocking to be near a new arena and expanded BMO Centre, well, I think we should be cautious about counting on this cash. We're more likely to drag in some tourists and conventioneers.

While we're on the subject of cash, it should also be noted the city said no community revitalization levy (CRL) dollars will be used to fund the new arena. We're told it will be some kind of a mix of public and private funding.

But what are the hard numbers?

Even slow and steady may not win the race

While I am cautious, I am also excited by the plans for the redevelopment of this part of town, which is long overdue.

I have to remind myself it won't happen overnight. It will take 20-plus years.

The EY report presents a plan for how three major projects might be phased over the next 10-plus years as a catalyst for development. It's an aggressive schedule. And it needs to be a balance of building what we can, when we can, at the same time as building enough at once to create a self-sustaining area.

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Tricky, that.

But it still counts on so many economic variables.If the plans lead with all of the publicly funded projects first, in the hope that private-sector projects will follow, it could be a recipe for disaster.

I hope come April, when administrators make their report back to council, these questions are all answered and council makes sure all of us in Calgary understand those answers.

We only have so much cash, and we have to be very certain we are spending it right, especially in uncertain economic times.

This column is an opinion. For more information about our commentary section, please read this editor's blog and our FAQ.

Calgary: The Road Aheadis CBC Calgary's special focus on our city as it passes through the crucible of the downturn: the challenges we face, and the possible solutions as we explore what kind of Calgary we want to create. Have an idea? Email us at calgarytheroadahead@cbc.ca

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