Calgary-Foothills byelection: 5 things to watch for

Voters in CalgaryFoothills can be excused for being a little weary of voting, as Thursdayis the third time in a year that they've gone to the polls.

• Polls are now closed.Follow CBC's coverage of the Calgary-Foothills byelection results here
• Allegations fly in Calgary-Foothills on final campaign day
• Voters head to the polls in Calgary-Foothills, again

This timethey're voting to replace former premierJim Prentice. He stepped down to the surprise and anger of many duringhis concession speech on election nightwhen the province's NDP obliterated theProgressive Conservative's 44-year-olddynasty.

Voters in Calgary-Foothills had picked Prentice to be their MLAin a byelection in October 2014. They went back to the polls on May 5 for the provincial election. And on Thursday, they wereasked to cast a ballot again.

This byelection marksthe first electoral test for the New Democrats since winning the spring election. Here are five things to keep an eye on:

Voter turnout

Byelections are notorious for low voter turnout and most longtime political watchers don't expect Calgary-Foothills to be any different this time around.

• CalgaryFoothills byelection could have low turnout

In the October byelection, only about a third of eligible voters actually cast a ballot. This, despite a massive media blitz by the political parties and a newly minted premier, fresh off of a victorious leadership race, running in the byelection.

"There was a lot of anticipation," remembers Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt. "It was high profile. There were TV ads, which is unprecedented and voter turnout was 36.5 per cent."

Brattsaid it's a Thursday before a long weekend, in the summer, in the midst of a federal campaign which marks the fourth time locals will have to cast a ballot in a year.Hedoesn't put much stock in the high number of votes cast in advance polls last week 12 per cent of the total electorate.

He said more and more voters are voting in advance and can't be used topredict voter turnout on election day.

Buyer's remorse?

Until their big win in May, the NDP had not won a seat in Calgary since 1989. But the spring election'sorange crush swept over big parts of traditionally conservative Calgary, with the party winning 14 of the city's 25 seats.

Recent pollssuggest the province is split over howRachel Notleyis doing as premier, with45 per cent saying they approve down from 62 per cent approval in May. Another42 per cent saythey disapprove.

Thebyelection marks the first time voters get to pass judgment on the new government.But byelections, say most analysts, are not a true barometer of the government's popularity.Voters often like to send a message of protest to the governing party.

A win tonight for the NDP would give the party justified bragging rights, according to some political experts.

"There is a huge upside if the NDP win this seat," Bratt said.

He said the government will spin a win as "an endorsement" of the party's agenda, including its corporate tax hike and controversial plan to review oil and gas royalty taxes.

The NDP has poured a lot of energy into the campaign.Notely and a number of cabinet ministers have spent time campaigning in theridingthat's been PC since 1971.But even if the party loses the byelection, Bratt said it won't be a huge deal.

"They're still the government," he said. "They still have a large majority. This is a traditional conservative seat that last October the NDPhad three per cent of the vote in."

How the once mighty Tories do

The PCs used to be a constant in Calgary politics. Former premiers Peter Lougheed and Ralph Klein called Calgary home.The PCs won 20 of the city's 25 seats in 2012.

But the political dynasty was crushed in the May election, reduced tojust 10seats and all but three members of Prentice's cabinet were defeated.

Most political watchers think the lingering anger over Prentice's decision to resign on election night could hurt the party.Even the PC's candidate in the riding,Blair Houston,admitted on CBC Radio that he's angry and frustrated with the former premier's decision to quit.

Bratt said a good showing in the race could breathe new life into the moribund PC party.

Wildrose has much at stake

The Wildrose Party, arguably, has the most at stake in this byelection.The mostly rural party needs to expand into the province's seat-rich cities if it ever wants to form a government.

Former Wildrose leader Paul Hinman upset the PC's tradition of winningin Calgary with a 2009byelection victoryin CalgaryGlenmore.Three years later, Hinman lost his seat in the general election, but the Wildrose captured two other seats in the city.

A byelection winin CalgaryFoothills would inject some energy into the party andcement it as the centre-right alternative to the NDP.

But a loss could result in questions being raised about the party's ability to appeal to urban voters.Brattsaid somewill wonder"are they simply a rural rump?"

Will the right be divided?

Political watchers will pay close attention to the vote percentages each party gets.

If the NDP wins by dividing the right, then there will likely be renewed calls for the Wildrose and PCs to unite.

• Danielle Smith wishes for Wildrose-PC coalition
• Jonathan Denis says the PC and Wildrose parties should unite

"That is going to put greater impetus on some sort of merger/co-operation between the two [opposition] parties," saidBratt.