Ontario election 1 year away - 5 things that will matter for Hamilton

By the time election day comes to Ontario, the provincial Liberal government will have been in power for almost 15 years.

The politics might change, but the administration continues on.- Mayor Fred Eisenberger

Is it time for a change? We'll find out exactly one year from today. And there's plenty to consider between now and then. There will be 15 new ridings. Corporations and unions have been banned from giving donations to political parties. And the PC's have a new leader.

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More than likely, there will be change in the Hamilton area too. Will Andrea Horwath stay on as leader of the NDP if the party remains in third place? Will TedMcMeekin, MPP forAncaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Glanbrook, run again? Who will winthe new riding ofFlamborough-Glanbrook? And what happens to teen politician Sam Oosterhoff?

We'll take a look at four things that might change before election night is over, and one thing that won't, no matter who wins.

1. What won't change: LRT

This one will be simple. No matter who wins, Hamilton's light-rail transit (LRT) system will be provincially funded.

The Liberals have already agreed to fund the $1 billion project. The NDP is "committed from day one to the LRT," says leader AndreaHorwath."Absolutely. One hundredper cent."

And PC leader Patrick Brown says he stands behind his comments last year that he'd respect the province's commitment to fund the cost of building LRT.

"I will work with the City of Hamilton on their transit priorities and I will continue to honour the commitments the provincial government has made to municipalities on infrastructure," he said in anemailedstatement Tuesday.

The impact of politics on LRT is one that's driven plenty of speculation.Coun. Lloyd Ferguson once headed a construction company that built Highway 407 and other major provincial projects. He also wants LRT.

"I'm suggesting that unless we get a hitch in ourgiddyup, we're going to be in trouble," hesaid at the time.

Mayor FredEisenbergerdoesn't see it as an issue. Shovels won't be in the ground, he said, but the city will likely have signed a legally binding master agreement withMetrolinxby then.Metrolinxwill have hired a contractor and purchased property. About $70 million will likely have been spent on the project.

"The politics might change, but the administration continues on,"Eisenbergersaid. "The political commitments have been made."

2. The future of Ted McMeekin

McMeekin, MPP for Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Glanbrook, says he'll announce by the end of the month whether he'll run again. He's talking to "dozens and dozens of people" as he ruminates on this, he said. "I think people have a right to know one way or the other."

If he does run, it'll likely be in the Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas riding. "That's the biggest part of my existing riding, which I've served for the last 17 years," said McMeekin, who lives in Waterdown.

3. The future of Andrea Horwath

As of next year, Horwath will have been Ontario NDP leader for nine years. That's more years than Stephen Lewis, and fewer than Howard Hampton and Bob Rae. Horwath says she's not thinking about her future as leader right now, just about her party winning in 2018.

"My head's not even there right now," she said Tuesday. "I'm more focused on the next campaign and putting forward ideas."

Horwath says her party's campaign will focus on electricity rates, hospital funding and other issues.

4. The new riding of Flamborough-Glanbrook

Elections Ontario has redrawn ridings to match thefederal ones, which first got a test run in 2015. The new riding includes most of the rural parts of Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale and Niagara West-Glanbrook.

Last year, PC leader Patrick Brown said his party would "invest time" in the riding, which is held federally by Conservative David Sweet. The Liberals are feeling hopeful too.

McMeekin is, after all, the closest the riding has to an incumbent, said Mark Ungar, president of the Flamborough-Glanbrook Provincial Liberal Association. "We feel good about it, and will treat this very much as a riding in play."

5. Sam Oosterhoffversusthe moderate Tory image

The Niagara West-GlanbrookMPP was just 19 when he won a byelection in November, but for analysts, he was significant in other ways.

Brown portrayshimself as a moderate. His ads show him in the Toronto Pride parade. He has also said that he's pro-union and that he favours putting a price on carbon.

Oosterhoff, meanwhile, is a social conservative. He's expressed views against abortion. When asked aboutWynne'ssex education curriculum, he saidparents should be the main educators of their kids. On election night, he sidestepped questions about whether he thought homosexuality is a sin.

So far though, Oosterhoff has kept fairly quiet about social issues. He was questioned about them hard, though, when he wassworn in two days later than a fellow MPP in Ottawa, missing a vote on same-sex parenting. Hesaid he wanted to spend time with his family while his nephew was being born.

samantha.craggs@cbc.ca | @SamCraggsCBC