Manitoba's actual daily COVID-19 numbers likely 8-10 times higher than reported figures: Dr. Atwal

Manitobareported 1,790 new COVID-19 cases Wednesday but the true number is likely far higheras much eight to 10 times that, saysDeputy Chief Public Health OfficerDr. Jazz Awtal.

"There's lots of cases we don't know about. Historically, withthe Delta [coronavirus variant], we knew for every case we identified, we missed out on four," he said at a news conference.

"With this Omicron variant, likely for every case we identified, we're missing out maybe eight, maybe 10 cases."

So the number of daily cases could actually be 16,000 to 17,000, Atwal said, underscoring that is an estimate "based on how infectious this [variant] is."

That means daily case counts are no longer the mostaccurate reflection of the virus's impactin the province because many cases are never reported.

There is also a backlog of 6,800 unprocessedPCR tests from provincial test sites, due to soaring demand.

To easethat backlog, some test sites are giving people rapid tests to take home instead of taking samples for a PCR.

Rapid test results are not entered into the provincial database. Instead, people are told to stay home and isolate.

Hospitalizationand intensive care unit numbers are nowa much better reflectionthe pandemic's effect on the population and impact on the health-care system, Atwalsaid.

As of Wednesday, there are 252people with COVID-19 in Manitoba hospitals, an increase of one from Tuesday.That includes 30in intensive care units, down bytwo.

As has been the pattern for the past couple of weeks, most of the new cases reported Wednesday are in the Winnipeg health region, which has1,320.

The Southern Health region reported190 new cases, the Interlake-Eastern health region has 116, the Northern Health Region has 84 and the Prairie Mountain Health region has 80.

A breakdown of the latest cases by vaccination status can be viewed on a chart on the government website.

Atwal saidearly data from new pandemic modellingin Manitoba has been prepared but public health is going over itbefore it is released.

Last month, the province unveiled modelling based on data from other regions that suggested Manitoba could see 1,000 cases of COVID-19 a day in the new year. Reported daily case counts have been over 1,000every daysince Dec. 30.

For the past week or two, the majority ofnew cases in Manitoba have been caused by theOmicron variant, but the Delta variant is still circulating, Atwal said.

It remains the dominant strain in the Northern Health Region and on First Nations, where Omicron has not yet been detected. Delta is also predominant in the Southern Health region, though the numbers are shifting toward Omicron,he said.

Atwal said the increased spread has meant the province has had to "adapt and shift" its response, as it has since the start of the pandemic, "but the pace continues to accelerate."

That response includes a change, effective Wednesday, toeligibility for PCR tests atprovincialsites. To protect capacity, those tests willnow be limitedtothose with COVID-19 symptoms and those advised by public health to go to a testing site.

Provincial test positivity rate surpasses40%

The five-day test positivity rate in Manitoba is 40.3per cent, up from 39.5on Tuesday. A month earlier it was just above five per cent.

In Winnipeg, the rate is 48 per cent. It was 32.2 on Friday, the last time it was reported.

The provincereported 8,960 new COVID-19 casesfrom Saturday to Wednesday, with a record high of 1,939 on Sunday.

Atwalsaid people should expect to see higher cases counts in the days to come as the testing backlog is processed.

He wouldn't speculate on what, if any, new public health measures may be required. The current orders expire Jan. 11.

Though up to 10 vaccinated visitors are allowed inside a home not counting the people that live there Atwal advised staying well under that limit while Omicron is so rampant.

He compared the orderstoa speed limit inpoor weather although acertain number is allowed,it's not advisable or safe.

"So if we're planning on interacting with 10 people this week, cut it down to two people. Let's do our part," he said.

The provincealso reportedtwo moredeaths from COVID-19 on Wednesdaya man in his 70s from the Winnipeg health region and awoman in her 60s from the Northern Health Region. Both arelinked to an unspecified variant of concern.

More details were also released about eight other deaths since the last news bulletin was issued on Friday. They include five from Saturday a manin his 70s from the Prairie Mountain Health region, two men in their 70s from theSouthern Health region, a man in his70s from the Winnipeg health region and a woman inher 80s from the Winnipeg health region.

There was one death on Monday,a man in his 60sfrom the Winnipeg health region,and two on Tuesdaya woman in her 90s from the Winnipeg region and a woman in her 80s fromSouthern Health.

The total number of deaths in the province related to COVID-19 is now 1,402 and the number of reported active cases is 18,844.

As of midnight, there were 92 patients in intensive care units across Manitoba. That includesthosereceiving care forCOVID-19 and non-COVIDpatients, a Shared Health spokesperson said.

The critical care program's normal, pre-COVID baseline capacity was 72 patients.

Several new outbreaks have been declared:

• Unit 4W atRiverview Health Centre in Winnipeg.
• Unit 4U 8-12 at Seven Oaks General Hospital in Winnipeg.
• Unit GA5/GA5 step down at Health Sciences Centre inWinnipeg.
• Unit GD4at Health Sciences Centre in Winnipeg.
• Unit GA4at Health Sciences Centre in Winnipeg.
• In-patient unit at Pinawa General Hospital in Pinawa.
• Oakview Place personal care home in Winnipeg.
• Actionmarguerite St. Vital personal care home in Winnipeg.
• Golden Links Lodge personal care home in Winnipeg.
• Holy Family personal care home in Winnipeg.
• Tuxedo Villa personal care home in Winnipeg.
• St. Amant Centre in Winnipeg.
• Milner Ridge Correctional Centre in Beausejour.
• Middlechurch Home personal care home in Winnipeg.
• Misericordia Health Centre's transitional care unitC5 in Winnipeg.

OutbreaksatHeritage Lodge personal care home in Winnipeg, cole Regent Park in Winnipeg, the Manitoba Developmental Centre in Portage la Prairieand Meadows School in Brandon have now been declared over.

60 warnings, 26 tickets over 2 weeks

The province also said Wednesday that enforcement officers handed out 60 warnings and 26 tickets forviolations of pandemic-related health orders between Dec. 20 and Jan. 2.

The fines totalled $24,694.

One ticket, for $8,550, was given to an individual under the federal Quarantine Act, while four other people each received tickets of $1,296 for various offences.

Another 20 tickets,for $298 each, were given for failure to wear a mask in an indoor public place. One $5,000 ticket went to a restaurant in Morden.

Twelve of the 26 tickets wereissued in the Southern Health region. Ten were given out in the Winnipeg region, two in Northern Health, and one each in the Interlake-Eastern andPrairie Mountain regions.

WATCH | Full news conference on COVID-19 | Jan.5, 2022:

Manitoba government daily briefing on coronavirus: Jan. 5

3 years ago

Duration 58:35

Provincial officials give update on COVID-19 outbreak: Wednesday, Jan. 5, 2022.