Manitoba's medical backlog has shrunk, but more work remains to be done: Doctors Manitoba

The estimated backlog of surgical and diagnostic procedures waiting to be performed in Manitoba has shrunk by tens of thousands, either because patients received the care they had been waiting for or they no longer needed it.

Doctors Manitoba now estimates that between 102,139 and 128,447 are waiting to be performed, compared with 166,903 in May, according to an update on Tuesday.

The organization, which represents physicians in the province, changed the way it estimates the backlog of procedures caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Whereas previous estimates looked at how many procedures had been missed during the pandemic, the new estimate looks ahead at how much work is required to clear the remaining backlog, Doctors Manitoba said in a news release.

There are a number of reasons why a procedure that was missed during the pandemic might no longer be needed. A physician might have been able to treat a patient without the procedure, their condition improved on its own, the patient moved awayor died while waiting.

The new methodology relies primarily on centralized wait lists and wait times for procedures. When that data isn't available, changes in procedure volumes during the pandemic compared with pre-pandemic volumes are considered.

Finally, when those numbers aren't available, estimates from service providers and other sources are used.

Last month, the estimated backlog shrank for the first time since Doctors Manitoba released its first estimate in June 2021. At that time, the backlog was estimated to be 110,000.

It made three recommendations:

• Setting a target date for clearing the backlog.
• Creating a task force to guide that work.
• Providing monthly updates.

The latest backlog estimate includes between 31,664 and 39,674 surgeries, 12,346 and 17,039 diagnostic imaging tests, and 58,129 and 71,734 other procedures, including allergy tests, mammograms and chronic pain assessments.

The organization also added a fourth recommendation, saying it's not enough to catch up with the backlog. Manitoba should assess the increasing demand for procedures caused by a growing population and medical advances.