'Elitist,' 'relatable' and 'who?' Swing riding voters have their say on 3 Manitoba political leaders

A group of voters fromWinnipeg swing ridingsdidn't mince words whendescribing theleaders of three parties vying for their approval in a provincial election campaign that officially starts Tuesday.

They called them "elitist,""out-of-touch" and "inexperienced" but also "relatable," "intelligent,"and, in one case,"who?"

It's people like those voters, living in a dozen or soswing ridings, who will likelydecide the outcome of anOct. 3 election that increasingly looks like atoss-up between the governing Progressive Conservatives and the OppositionNDP, who would have to claim mostof those swing seats in order to form government.

The PCs ended the last legislature session with 35 of the 57 seats in the Manitoba Legislature. The NDP had 18 representatives and the Liberals had three. One seat was vacant.

To get a sense of voters' opinions this time around,Probe Research, in collaboration with CBC Manitoba, put together afocus group with likely voters fromWinnipeg's swing ridings. The polling companyidentified potential participants from its paneland then randomly selected eight people to ensure a mix of peoplereasonably representative ofManitoba's demographics.

The 90-minute discussion, which took place Aug. 29 at The Forks in Winnipeg,was designedto help understand whichissues matter most to voters and how the campaign is shaping up. It was moderated by Mary Agnes Welch from Probe Research, and filmed by CBC staff.

By and large, the focus group participantspanned Progressive Conservative Leader Heather Stefanson and complimented NDPLeader Wab Kinew, though some expressed hesitations.

Participantscommended Manitoba Liberal Leader Dougald Lamontif they knew who he is at all.

WATCH |Focus group participants have their say on party leaders:

Voters from Winnipeg swing ridings have their say on Manitoba's political party leaders

1 year ago

Duration 7:27

Focus group participants, who live in swing ridings in Winnipeg, offer their perspectives on Progressive Conservative Leader Heather Stefanson, NDP Leader Wab Kinew and Manitoba Liberal Leader Dougald Lamont, at a discussion moderated and organized by Probe Research, in collaboration with CBC Manitoba.

While many focus group participants leaned toward theNDP, which tracks comparably to recent polling numbers inWinnipeg, every one of them hadnegative perceptions of HeatherStefanson, the Toryleader who has been premier since 2021.

When asked to write down three words to describe Stefanson, noneoffered a positive attribute, even when pressed by the moderator.

"I wrote 'entitled, elitist and distrustful,'" saidPatrick Armstrong, 50.

"I feel like she doesn't represent me and my family,and part of that is intertwined with the party she's involved with,"Armstrong said. "She just doesn't come across as being in touch with my concerns and issues."

Armstrong is from Fort Richmond, a riding the Tories have held since 2016. It's one of the south Winnipeg seatsthe NDPis targeting.

The PCs are in for a tough fight after MLASarah Guillemard announced she isstepping awayfrom politics, while theNDP made aplay for voters with the election promise they would make reopen the emergency room at the riding'sVictoria General Hospital.

The focus group participants also consideredStefansonto beout-of-touch and out of her depth. There was strong recollection of her boastingabout her son's hockey championshipwhen asked inquestion period in May 2022 about the death of a COVID-19 patient after a failed airlift.She later apologized, saying her remark was "misplaced."

"That to me is a complete disconnect, not only in terms of your role and your issues ofthe moment, but in terms of what's really important," saidJeff Harty, a 59-year-old voter from Kirkfield Park, a usual Tory stronghold where thePCs barely eked out a victory in a late 2022 byelection.

But "I have to be fair, that was a moment, and I'm pretty sure she's learned from that," he said.

Valentina Timofeieve, a 37-year-old voter in Rossmere, said she's found Stefanson "bland andmediocre."

"I just found that she didn't have charisma."

Rossmereis one of the north Winnipeg ridings the PCs won in the 2019 election by under 1,000 votes. Tight races are expected again in 2023.

When asked to describe Kinew, focus group participantshadmore favourable impressions.

Remi Dupon, 37, a Southdale voter, wrote down "charisma, passionate and for the people" to describe Kinew.

His riding is representedby a prominent Tory cabinet minister, Health Minister Audrey Gordon. It's one of the south Winnipeg seatscritical to anNDPpath to victory.

Many focus group participantswere aware of Kinew'stroubled past,which includes convictions for impaired driving and assaulting a cab driver offences for which he's received pardons as well as adomestic violence allegation he's denied, butthey didn't consider it a deal breaker.

"From what I can see, he has done the work to move past those issues in the past," said Robyn Turner, 31, aFort Richmond resident.

Another voter, Alyssa Campbell, considers Kinew gracious and, as premier, believes he could possess aunique perspective because of his past missteps.

"Hopefullythat means that he will deal with issues in a new way that maybe will have a better impact on our community," said the 26-year-oldfrom Southdale.

Doubts over Kinew's experience

Some in the focus group questioned whetherKinew isup forthe job of premier, though.

"I'll be frank, I mean WabKinew is an untested, untried neophyte in terms of apolitician," Harty said. "Great broadcaster, excellent author, but doesn't have the pedigree in terms of political background."

The focus group participants were largely familiar with the two leaders and the parties they represent. The other MLAs, even if they could name them, didn'tfactorinto their voting intentionsin a major way.

This doesn't surprise Christopher Adams,an adjunct professor in political studies at the University of Manitoba.

"There's a tendency in elections thatpeople focus on the leader," he said. It's "on the tails ofthe leaderthose seats move."

Half of the people in the focus group had no knowledge ofManitoba Liberal Leader Dougald Lamont.

Those who were aware of Lamont applauded his grasp of the issues.

"Dougald Lamont is someone who is very articulateand very practical in his policies,"said Aidan Prenovault, 26, fromLagimodiere a south Winnipeg riding the PCs won handily in 2019, but which could be closer if suburban voters decide to backthe NDPen masse.

"But the NDP have eaten the Liberals' lunch for decades in terms of policy and the Liberals have just become so indistinguishable in Manitoba politics, which is unfortunate," saidPrenovault.

Entering the election campaign, Adams said the Tories and NDP can eachcount on sure-betseats.For the Tories, it's the more affluent areas of Winnipeg and large swaths of rural southern Manitoba, while the New Democratstraditionally have the backing ofWinnipeg's core andNorth End, as well asnorthern Manitoba.

The Liberals have pockets of support they'vetraditionallyretainedthe Winnipeg seats of River Heights andTyndall Park.

WATCH |Swing riding voters on the issues that matter most to them:

Health-care, cost of living, crime top issues for swing riding focus group

1 year ago

Duration 3:09

Focus group participants, who live in swing ridings in Winnipeg, explain the top issue deciding their vote in the upcoming Manitoba election. The discussion was moderated and organized by Probe Research, in collaboration with CBC Manitoba.

While other surprises are possible, thisleaves some 12-15 seatsup for grabs, some more vulnerable to a steal than others.

A number of them are Tory-held and in south Winnipeg, specifically Riel represented byFamilies Minister Rochelle Squires along withSouthdale, Fort Richmond and Seine River.

The NDP are targeting the north Winnipeg ridings of McPhillips, Radisson andRossmerefor flips.

Byelections in the last year proved the Tories are susceptible in some traditionally safe seats, including Kirkfield Park and Fort Whyte. In those contests, a star PC candidate (former Winnipeg city councillor Kevin Klein and former Winnipeg Blue Bomber Obby Khan, respectively) narrowly beat their challengers. This election will feature rematches.

The NDPhas put the resources into stealing St. Boniface, which Lamont has represented since a 2018 byelection. Before then, it was the longtime seat of the NDP's Greg Selinger, who served as premier from 2009 to 2016.

Outside the city, the Tories picked up Selkirk, Dauphin and Brandon East when it was ushered into power in 2016. The NDPconsidersthose seatsripe for the taking.

It's these swing ridings where the old adagethat every vote mattersrings true an experience Robyn Turner, 31, who moved to Fort Richmond two years ago, is getting used to.

"Before that, I had always been voting in Steinbach, where my vote meant absolutely nothing," referring to the landslide Tory victories commonplace in that seat.

"It's nice to know that my vote will be more than a protest vote this time."

For full electioncoverage, visitCBC's2023 Manitoba election page.