Kinew's political honeymoon continues with approval rating climbing higher, poll suggests

Manitoban's approval of Wab Kinew's leadership has gone up, securing his spot asCanada's most popular premier,a new poll suggests, but a political analyst says his popularity will be put to the test come budget day.

In apoll from Angus Reid Institute,63 per cent of respondentssaid they approve of Kinew. That's up six per cent from a 2023 surveythat also placed him as the most popular premier in the country.

"I am surprised that it's gone up by six points, that it's not just as high up as it was last time, but even higher," said Chris Adams, a political analyst and adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba.

Since Kinew's NDP unseated the Progressive Conservative Party on Oct. 3, he has followed through on different election promises that likely boosted his popularity, including his plan to temporarily cut the provincial gas tax, Adams said.

But Kinew also hasn't had to face tough opposition in the assembly yet, Adams said. He has also gotten some "fairly good attention" across Canada.

"The fact that he's a First Nations premier, the first in Canada to be a First Nations premier [of a province], I would say that he's held himself pretty well in the media since his election," said Adams.

Kinew's cabinet is also fairly new to politics, and "hasn't made any major mistakes so far," he said.

When it comes to problems Manitobans are facing, including issues with hospital emergency wards and inflation, voters might be placing blame on either the federal government or the former PC government, Adams said.

"Wab Kinew has shown himself to be quite competent as a premier," he said.

"At every event we're now seeing Wab Kinew at he's winning accolades."

Former PC premier Heather Stefanson had the lowest approval ratesof all provincial leaders, ranging from 21 to 28 per cent.

Though her predecessor Brian Pallister went out with the worst approval rating in Canada 32 per cent when he stepped down in 2021, his approval rating was 21 points higher when he was first elected in 2016.

'Where the rubber hits the road'

The number of respondents who disapprove of Kinew shrank from 28 per cent in the 2023 poll to 23 per cent in the new poll.

Fourteen per cent of respondents weren't sure how they viewed Kinew. That's two per cent lower than the 2023 poll, though it's still the highest uncertainty rating among the provinces.

"There are people still waiting to see,and probably people who had voted Progressive Conservative whether they really dislike this government or not," Adams said.

Kinew's numbers suggest the honeymoon phase of his role as premier has continued into the new year, but the release of Manitoba's budget on April 2"will be where the rubber hits the road," Adams said.

People will see which of the NDP's promises are kept and which will get funding, he said.

"We will start seeing people having views of how this government is working."

The budget is expected to focus on health care and investments in Manitoba's low carbon economy.

The poll was conducted online from Feb. 28 to March 6 using a representative random sample of 4,550 Canadian adults who are members of the Angus Reid Forum. In Manitoba, the sample size was 354.

For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of the same size would yield a margin of error of plus or minus fivepercentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Adams said while less than 400 respondents is "good enough" to compare Kinew with other premiers, it's not enough to get a sense of how people in different parts of the province view Kinew, something that's "often very telling as to the views about a government."

"We can't slice and dice it," Adams said. "It's not something where we can really go in-depth into the numbers by demographics."

Kinew ranked 10 points higher than the second most popular Canadian premier, Saskatchewan's Scott Moe. New Brunswick's Blaine Higgs is heading into his provincial election as the least popular premier in the country.