Manitoba reopening plans initiated prematurely, say experts

Manitoba is set to take a step toward the elimination ofall pandemic-related restrictions, with an eye toward spring.

Premier Heather Stefansonsaidconditions are improving and therefore the province will ease up on some of therules that are currently in place, but others in the health community believe the decision is slightly premature.

Stefanson, who addressed reporters at a news conference Wednesday afternoonalongsideChief Provincial Public Health Officer Dr. Brent Roussin, announced new public health orders will come into effect starting Feb. 8.

"We are seeing some positive trends in the data throughout the province, indicating that COVID-19 is starting to stabilize in our province as those trends continue," Stefanson said.

Roussin noted that throughout the pandemic, restrictions have been put in place for temporary measures. However, there appears to be a glimmer of light at the end of Manitoba'sCOVID-19 tunnel.

"The vast majority of Manitobans have done their part and gotten vaccinated, and we all know that our path forward must be one to continue to remove these public health orders over time but in obviously a cautious manner," Roussin said.

Experts caution of reopening too early

While vaccination uptake isone of the tools the province is using to help slow the spread ofCOVID-19, Dr. Jason Kindrachuk, a virologist and Canada Research Chair at the University of Manitoba,believes vaccines aren't the only measure Manitoba needs to use to ensure citizens are protected.

There is wastewater and hospitalization data, the latter of which Kindrachuk says is lagging, but he doesn't think the province has provided a good assessment on case numbers and notespolymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing has been limited for the past few weeks.

"We want to be cautious. We want to be appreciative that people want to get back to normal, and certainly we need to," Kindrachuksaid.

"But we also need to be very cognizant of the fact that this virus will burn very, very quickly if we give it enough oxygen."

We are certainly working on the virus's schedule not the other way around.- Jason Kindrachuk

Admittedly cautious at the best of times, Kindrachukisn't surprised the province is moving in the direction of lessening restrictions with the hope having removing them entirely. He simply wants tobe prepared in case another variant of concern rears its ugly head.

If the situation changes, thereis a need to be asfluid as possible and "change on a dime," Kindrachuk said.

"I would like to see us have all of our arsenal present to be able to gauge where we are at any given time."

Initiating a plan where restrictions are a thing of the past by the time snow melts and flowers begin to bloom isn't something the virus is just going to allow us to do, he says.

"The virus doesn't care whatour timetable is. This is not some sort of a conscious organism that we're dealing with,"Kindrachuk said.

"We are certainly working on the virus's schedule not the other way around."

'Seems a bit premature': Shaw

Like Kindrachuk, Souradet Shaw, an assistant professor for thedepartment of community health services at the University of Manitoba, also thinks it's too early to plan stages for reopening the province.

"It seems a bit premature to be on a path to reopen things, particularly as we've lost all situational awareness when it comes to knowing where our cases are coming from, who is most affected, and what the transmission chains are," Shaw, who is also the Canada research chair in program science and global public healthfor the Institute for Global Public Health, said in an email to CBC News.

"Hospitalizations are at an all-time high, and ICUs have not yet peaked so the timing is curious."

In addition to the sustained strain on Manitoba's health-care system, Shaw's biggest fear is that prematurely opening up could put the province back on the path to school closures.

Neither StefansonorRoussin revealed any data specifics, but Roussin believes the pandemic's Omicron wave, which iswidespread in Manitoba,has peaked.

"Based on from what we're seeing from things like hospital admissions and case reports, and looking at absenteeism rates from different sectors, we do see it's very likely that we've hit a peak in Manitoba for case generation," he said.

No specific roadmap is in place, butthe message Roussinconveyed to Manitobans isto prepare for a normal spring.

"I think the message is that given wherewe are right now,if we don't see anything unexpected, that we're looking at arestriction-free Manitoba by spring," he said.