How the federal Conservatives handed the Liberals their first byelection loss since 2013

In November, the Conservative brain trust inQuebec wassearching high and low for a candidate to run in abyelectionthat hadn't even been called.

The Liberal MP ofChicoutimiLe Fjord,Denis Lemieux, had just announced he was leaving politics. Veteran members of the Tories' Quebec caucusfeltthey could take the riding,which is located in and around Saguenay, about 200 kilometresnorth of Quebec City.

It was optimism that, at the time,bordered on magical thinking. The party, after all, finished in fourth place there in the 2015 election.

But Lemieux's departure was sudden and caught his party unaware. Tory MPGerardDeltellwas among those who believed his party had a shot if they got a jump on the campaign.

They just needed the right candidate.

At a meeting in November,Deltellrecalled Tuesday, someone came forward and said:"I know someone in Chicoutimi."

The speaker was Antoine Tardif, the party's little-known chief organizer in Quebec, who is being lauded for helping revive Conservative hopes in the province.

The name Tardifput forward was Richard Martel, popular among locals as the colourful former coach ofSaguenay'smajor junior hockey team.

Tardif knew Martel from his own days as a goalie in the league, where he often had to face Martel's teams.

It was Tardif, according to a party source, who first called Martel and began the courting process. Within a month, and after some coaching byDeltell,Martel had launched his campaign.

On Monday, he delivered an upset victory for the party. It was the first time the Liberals have lost a byelectionsince Justin Trudeau took over as leader in 2013.

No shame in being a Tory anymore

Tardifeschews the limelight. He ducks most interview requests. But his wunderkind political resume is tough to ignore.

While studying economics and politics at McGillUniversity,Tardif 23 at the timewas elected mayor of his hometown of Daveluyville, Que.He beat an incumbent mayor with 66 per cent of the vote.

In 2015, he ranthe federal election campaign of fellow small-town mayorAlain Rayes, who now serves as the Quebec lieutenantfor Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer.

Tardif's time as Quebec organizer has coincided with a rise in the Conservative Party's fortunes in Quebec. They're polling between five and 10 points higher than in 2015, most recently around the 22 per cent mark.

While that's still well behind the Liberals, there is a sense the party is beginning to broaden its support beyond the small base it built during the Stephen Harper years.

Rayes andTardif, with help from trustedoldhands like Deltell, have helped soften the party's image, while perceived renegadessuch as the libertarianMaxime Bernierhave been sidelined.

"If you gotoyour Christmas party and tell your family you're going to vote Conservative, nobody looks at you and really judges you anymore," said CarlValle,who worked as press secretary for former prime minister Harper.

He says the Conservatives "have become a little more mainstream. They've become more accepted and acceptable."

ChicoutimiLe Fjord is an overwhelmingly francophone riding far from Montreal that's never been held bythe modern version of the Conservative Party.

That the Conservative could win there,Valle said, is a sign they can hope for growth in similar ridings come the next federal election.

A message to the Bloc

The consolidation of the anti-Trudeau vote in Quebec behind the Tories has been helped, no doubt, by the woes of the Bloc Qubcois and the NDP.

But the Conservatives have also carefully chosen issuesthat, while not major scandals, have grated on the nerves of their potential voters.

One recurring theme during the byelectioncampaign was Ottawa's insistence onpushing ahead with the legalization of marijuana, despite the reluctance of the Quebec government.

"The waythey rushedthat through as quickly as possible didn't go over well with people living in rural areas," Martel told Radio-Canada on Tuesday.

The marijuanaquestion also allowedthe Conservatives to repeat their promise to respect provincial jurisdictions, which they hope will continue to appealto nationalists left homeless by the Bloc's collapse.

The Conservatives want those votes badly. They managed to convince Michel Gauthier, a former Bloc leader from the Saguenayarea, to take out a party membership and stumpfor Martel.

"Michel Gauthier was a clear signal to Bloc supporters that said, 'OK,guys, time to move on to something else,'" said Deltell.

Factors beyond Conservative control

If the win gives the Tories the appearance of momentum in Quebec, their opponents have been quick to dismiss it as a freak occurrence.

Families MinisterJean-Yves Duclos, who represents a Quebec City riding, attributed the victory to Martel's local popularity.

ricDubois, the unsuccesful NDPcandidate in ChicoutimiLe Fjord, scoffed that Scheer"looked pretty small next to Martel." He suggested the vote was an endorsement more of the former coach's record than of Conservative polices.

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Valle, the former Harper adviser, acknowledged that maintaining momentum for the Conservativeswill depend on factors outside their control.

"Things that help the incumbent usually happenon the international scene," saidValle. Their support grows amid global turmoil because politics becomesabout "Canadianunity and supporting whoeveris in government."

What kind of events didVallehave in mind?

"A major financial or, I don't know, a trade war with Donald Trump," he said.