As fall Quebec election looms, polls give the CAQ the momentum

With Quebec'sprovincial election still many months away,polls suggest that Franois Legault'sCoalition Avenir Qubec is in the driver's seat. If an election were held today, the party probably wouldwin a majority andoust Liberal Philippe Couillard from the premier's office.

But the election is set for Oct. 1. Will the CAQ be able to maintain its momentum over the last sitting of the National Assembly and through to an election campaign that kicks off more than sixmonths from now?

Two recent polls indicate that the CAQ begins this election year in a strong position. The surveys, conducted by Lger forLe Devoirat the end of January and by Ipsos forLa Pressebetween Feb. 2-4, pegged the CAQ's support at between 34 and 39 per cent. The Liberals trailed in second place, with between 28 and 30 per cent supportnumbers that historically represent the party's floor.

The Parti Qubcois, under its beleaguered leader Jean-FranoisLise, registered between 20 and 23 per cent support in the two surveys, while Qubec Solidairecame in at eight to nine per cent support.

These numbers likely would deliver the CAQ a majority government. Projections using the methodology employed by the CBC's federal Poll Tracker give the party between 53 and 78 seats straddling the 63 seats needed to form a majority.

The trend lines are heading in the right direction for the CAQ. Compared to the scene when Lger and Ipsosboth were last in the field in October, the CAQ has gained between five and six points. The party's support has climbed consistentlyover the last year or so, and Legault now beats Couillard as the preferred premier by a margin of about two-to-one.

He beats Lise by a margin of three-to-one.

But the CAQand its predecessor, the Action Dmocratique du Qubec, have been in this position before.

CAQ, ADQ have blown leads in the past

When Legaultlaunched his new political party at the end of 2011 and in short order swallowed up the remnants of the ADQ, then under the leadership of current Conservative MP Grard Deltell the CAQ topped the polls. The party was scoring as high as 37 to 39 per cent in December 2011.

But in the September 2012 provincial election, the CAQ finished third, with just 19 seats.

It wasn't the first time that Quebecershad flirted with a nationalist, centre-right option in polls, only to spurn it at the ballot box.

In September and October 2002, the ADQunder Mario Dumont was leading in the polls. The ADQwon just four seats in the 2003 provincial election six months later.

After storming to 41 seats andofficial opposition status in 2007, the ADQ led in the first post-election polls. But in the subsequent election in 2008, the ADQ was back inthird place and was reduced to seven seats.

The CAQ is starting with a stronger base; it won 22 seats in 2014 and has held its support well above 20 per cent over the last two years. But the spectre of a similar collapse undoubtedly haunts Legaultnow, with anotherelection looming.

PQ bottoms out as QS tumbles

Lise and the Parti Qubcoisfacewhat could be ahistoric collapse in October. The PQis polling now at a level of support that would deliver the worst electoral performance in the party's history. With its current level of support the PQ would risk being reduced to just a handful of seats if the election were held today possibly fewer than it needs to be recognized as an official party in the National Assembly.

But the PQ'sslide may have bottomed out. Aftersinking over the past year,the party has polled at between 19 and 20 per cent in three consecutiveLger polls. If that's a silver lining for Lise, it's athin one.

The apparent fading of Qubec Solidaire's support might offer better news for the struggling PQ leader. When Gabriel Nadeau-Duboisjoined the party last year and, along with Manon Mass, became one of its co-spokespeople, QS's support jumped into the mid-teens.

But the party has dropped three points since October in Lger's polling, and four points over that time according to Ipsos. At eight to nine per cent, the party is barely more popular than it was when it took 7.6 per cent of the vote in 2014.

Liberals down but not out

Where does all this leave the Liberals? A weak PQ traditionally has been good news for them, but the PQhas lost so much support to the CAQ that Couillard might be rooting for Lise to turn things around at least a little.

The Liberals still retain some significant advantages. Their support among non-francophones remains high,between 61 and 74 per cent. The CAQ has eaten into that vote,but not enough to put any of the Liberals' majority anglophone seats in danger. The francophone split between the CAQ, PQ and QS on the island of Montreal actuallymight make it easier for the Liberals to hold their non-anglophone Montreal seats as well.

Satisfaction with the government is low, but the Liberals have a strong economy at their backs. The PQ is shattered and the CAQ is inexperienced, with a track record of blowing leads in the polls. Couillard is still very much a contender.

But politics in Quebec can change very quickly. For Legault, October can't come soon enough.