Why a not criminally responsible verdict is unlikely in Quebec's election-night murder case

The verdict in the Parti Qubcois election-night murder trial is in the hands of thejurorsand they're facing an elaboratepuzzle: How should theyweigh contradictory testimony from two expert witnesseswho disagreeon the accused'sstate of mind?

"In myexperience in most of these cases, where there is a battle of the experts, often [they] end up siding with the Crown expert," Patrick Baillie, a forensic psychologist and lawyer, told CBC News.

• What happened on Sept. 4, 2012
• Jury hears it will have to put together 'puzzle' on Richard Bain's criminal responsibility

RichardBainis accusedof first-degree murder in the deadly shooting outsideMontreal's Metropolison election-night 2012.Lighting technician Denis Blanchettedied and co-workerDave Courage wasseriously injured.

Bain is being tried by jury in Quebec Superior Court in Montreal.

The Crown argues that Bain went to the thePartiQubcoisvictoryrally that night,armed with rifles,handgunsand the intent to kill.

Butthedefence team is arguingBainwas notcriminallyresponsible due to a mental disorder. It says he wasdelusional that night, a symptom of hisbipolar disorder.

• CBC Doc Zone:NCR: Not Criminally Responsible

"Youhave to understand, he had this religious belief that was so real that he was the instrument of God, that he was chosen," said defence lawyer Alan Guttman in his closing arguments.

WhileBailliedoes not have detailed knowledge of the Bain trial, he doeshavean extensive background in not criminally responsible, or NCR, trials in Canada, including theMatthew deGroodcase.De Grood was declared NCR in May after stabbing five young peopleat a Calgary house party.

The Calgary-based psychologist told CBC News that in his experience, battle of the expert cases rarely result in NCR verdicts.

'High likelihood' jury may side with Crown expert

Baillie explains that for a jury it can beconfusing when two experts disagree.

"There's a high likelihood that a jury may want to simply side with the Crown's expert and find that Mr. Bain knew what he was doing," hesaid.

In this case, the battle of the experts is between forensic psychiatrist Dr. Marie-Frderique Allard, called to testify by the defence, and forensic psychiatrist Dr. Joel Watts, called to testify by the Crown.

• Defence tries to shake credibility of Crown psychiatrist in Richard Bain trial

Allard, in her conclusion of her report, writes:"There is a probability(more than 50 per cent) that the delusional ideas had motivated [Bain's] behaviours."

Watts, on the other hand, concludes:"It is my opinion, with reasonable medical certainty, that Mr. Bain knew the wrongfulness of his acts."

Baillie suggestedthat kindof contradiction can give psychiatry a bad reputation.

"It doesn't do the profession any good to have two respected professionals come to very different opinions."

• Psychiatrists called to testify in Baintrialdisagree on sanity of accused

He added that kind of evidence makes it challenging for a jury tounanimously agree that allthe criteria for an NCR verdict have been met.

NCR: Not a 'loose' term

Before the jury beganits deliberations, Quebec SuperiorCourt Justice Guy Cournoyercautioned that a verdict of NCRmust follow strict criteria.

"Each of you may have your own idea about when such a verdict is applicable," Cournoyer said to the jurorson Friday.

"Under our law, however, the verdict of not criminally responsible because of a mental disorder is not a loose term. Quite the contrary."

• Criminal Code of Canada: Verdict of Not Criminally Responsible

He said in order to find Bain not criminally responsible, there are two important questions theymust answer.

First, he said, they must concludethat the defence team has proved it ismore likelythan not Bain was suffering from a mental disorder in this case bipolar disorder at the time of the offence.

Second, they must agree that the defence team has proved it is more likely than not that hismental disorder rendered him incapable of knowing that his acts were morally wrong.

• Mathew de Grood, Guy Turcotte, Luka Rocco Magnotta and other NCR cases

In order to deliver a verdict of NCR, or any verdict for that matter, the jury must be unanimous.

A verdict of not criminally responsible would apply to all four charges that Bain is facing: one count of first-degree murder, and three counts of attempted murder.

If Bain is found not criminally responsible, he will remain under the care and supervision of a psychiatric facilityuntil a review board makes a decision about his supervision and treatment.

The review boardmust hold its hearing 45 days after a finding of NCR.

"Mr. Bain will only be released when the review board finds he is not a significant threat to the population," Cournoyer told the jury.

The jury's deliberations begin Saturday morning at 9 a.m.

• Richard Bain murder trial now in the hands of the jury