Political scientists break down New Brunswick vote results

After a Liberal sweep in the previous federal election, the new electoral map of New Brunswick is a little more colourful.

Ridings in the north and east of the province, as well as Saint John, are Liberal red.

Ridings in the south and west are mostly Conservative blue.

It seems like a return to more traditional voting patterns, said J.P. Lewis, a political scientist at the University of New Brunswick's Saint John campus.

Lewis feels the 2015 election results may have been an anomaly.

"You had a case of a government who had been in power almost a decade and then you had, you know, the momentum of a very popular leader during that campaign."

Fast forward to 2019, Lewis said, and Trudeau is instead "a drag on the party."

"I think that brings ridings back to what they historically have voted."

Lewis said Liberal Wayne Long was likely helped to victory in Saint John by the facthe had challenged Trudeau on a few issues.

The overall New Brunswick results, Lewis noted, are "a pretty incredible mirror" of the 2018 provincial election results.

Conservative count doesn't match popular support

St. Thomas University political scientist Jamie Gillies was struck by the efficiency and inefficiency of the voting results meaning the Liberals won more seats than you would expect and the Conservatives fewer, relative to the popular vote.

The Liberal vote showed "resiliency," he said.

The party won six out of 10 seats in the province and 26 out of 32 seats in Atlantic Canada.

The Conservatives recaptured three ridings in the province that were lost in 2015.

But they lost a tight race in Miramichi-Grand Lake, where the right-leaning People's Alliance Party had made inroads in the 2018 provincial vote.

"All the close races everywhere the Conservatives needed to be competitive across the country against the Liberals, they lost," said Gillies.

Gillies said Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer missed an opportunity to grow his party's base when he spoke after last night's results had come in. Gillies described Scheer'sspeech as vindictive and partisan.

"That didn't strike me as the right chord to win over over two-thirds of Canadians that didn't vote for you," said Gillies.

"That was not the speech to give."

Historic win for Green Party

Acadia University political scientist Erin Crandall said Jenica Atwin's win in Fredericton was momentous.

"It's a big deal for the Green Party to have a seat outside of British Columbia," said Crandall.

Lewis agreed.

"She will have I would imagine, quite the voice in Ottawa," he said, noting Atwin makes up one-third of the entire Green caucus.

Gilliessaid it was less a vote against Liberal incumbent Matt DeCourcey than a vote in favour of focusing on climate change.

"That was overwhelmingly the number one issue among younger voters. And that's the largest demographic in the electorate right now."

But he also creditedthe candidate.

"Jenica Atwin won this riding because she's Jenica Atwin," said Gillies.

Her campaign drew support from all parts of the greater Fredericton community, he said particularly the four First Nations.

Crandall agreed it was an effective grassroots campaign.

"You can't underestimate door knocking and boots on the ground," said Crandall.