Liberals open small lead as N.B. election starts

The Liberals have taken a slight lead in public opinion as the 32-day election campaign started on Thursday, according to Corporate Research Associates.

The poll is showing the Liberals with 41 per cent of decided and leaning voters compared to 36 per cent that say they are backing the Progressive Conservatives. The NDP has held steady at 16 per cent from the May poll by Corporate Research Associates.

The poll shows the Green Party with six per cent of decided voters, while the People's Alliance of New Brunswick is registering one per cent. The percentage of undecided voters in the poll was 41 per cent as the campaign started.

Don Mills, the president and chief executive officer of CRA, said the latest opinion survey shows the Liberals have held steady and the Tories are losing momentum.

"The Opposition doesn't usually win the election, the incumbent party loses the election. The troubles of the Liberals is an advantage to the Conservatives," Mills said.

"But it doesn't seem, by the numbers, that they have taken advantage of that. I'm not sure why. They've come out with interesting policies, they've been visible with positions, but they haven't got the traction you'd expect given the dissatisfaction with the government."

Although the Liberal lead is still within the poll's margin of error, it is the first time the party has been ahead in public opinion since the deal to sell NB Power to Hydro-Qubec was announced last fall.

The Tories jumped out to a 10-percentage-point lead with 46 per cent support in November 2009. But the PCs have watched that lead evaporate in the subsequent surveys.

Alward loses support

When asked who they would prefer as premier, 29 per cent of voters chose Liberal Leader Shawn Graham, while 22 per cent chose PC Leader David Alward.

Graham's personal support level only inched up one percentage point since the May poll, but Alward saw his rating drop five points, from 27 per cent to 22 per cent.

According to the CRA poll, NDP Leader Roger Duguay isbacked by eight per cent of voters, Green Party Leader Jack MacDougall is at five per cent and People's Alliance Leader Kris Austin is at three per cent.

Almost 30 per cent of those surveyed said they did not know which leader they preferred, or would not answer.

The polling company surveyed 806 New Brunswickers from Aug. 4 to 24. The poll is considered accurate within 3.4 percentage points, 95 times out of 100.

Third-party breakthrough

While the two dominant parties are jockeying for the lead among decided voters, Mills said a very importantrace is brewing among the smaller parties.

In the 2006 election campaign, roughly five per cent of people voted for a party other than the Liberals and Conservatives.

CRA's poll shows almost 25 per cent of decided voters are planning to send their vote to one of the third parties.

Mills said that surge in support for smaller political organizations could lead to a larger shift in how the New Brunswick election plays out.

"If that support holds for those third parties, frankly, it will make it a lot more difficult to determine the outcome of the election," Mills said.

"It might be that this is the opportunity for a third party to make some significant gains, if not on the electoral side, but building a constituency of support."

The pollster said Nova Scotia Premier Darrell Dexter took a decade of chipping away at the support of the traditional parties before he made his breakthrough in the 2009 election.

The province's NDP leader said his party has 53 candidates nominated compared to the four candidates that were in place when the 2006 election started. Duguay said that is further proof that his party is ready to capitalize on the public support highlighted in the poll.

"There is no big surprise that we see one quarter of decided voters are not interested in voting for the traditional parites," Duguay said.

"I've felt that for the last year. They see the NDP as the realistic and pragmantic alternative. They notice that we are serious. I think that is why they are ready to give us a chance in this election."

Switching support

The party that wins the election may end up being the one that holds its support from bleeding to the other parties.

The People's Alliance has a handful of former PC candidates now running in the campaign under its banner, including party leader Kris Austin. It is believed the People's Alliance will drain Tory support on Sept. 27.

But Mills said the Tories also need to worry about losing support to the Greens.

"We see the Greens as more likely to take votes from the Conservatives. We think they might be the true Progressive Conservatives that have concerns over the environment," Mills said.

Green Party Leader Jack MacDougall said he's hoping the early strength of his party will translate on election day.

"The Green party has never elected anybody in North America. So any candidate wins would be a huge breakthrough," MacDougall said.

For the People's Alliance, which received official party status two months ago and has less than 20 candidates, the poll shows promise.

"We are sitting at a pivotal moment, we could change New Brunswick in this election," Austin said.

"The same old spin, the same old rhetoric will not work anymore."

Austin said his party may be garnering only a fraction of the support of the others, but if those votes are consolidated in a few ridings, the party could see some candidates elected.