Maritimes 'on losing end' of sea-level rise predictions, warns researcher

A marine research ecologist at Dalhousie University says New Brunswick and the rest of the Maritimes would be among the hardest hit by sea-levelrises outlined in a newreport by the U.S. government.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which is similar to Fisheries and Oceans Canada, predicts that by the year 2100, sea levelscould rise between 0.35 metres(one foot) and 2.5 metres (8.2 feet), depending on what efforts are made to reduce climate change.

The effect on different regions would vary dependingon severalfactors, such as theshape of ocean basins, the gravitational pull of the continents and ice masses, as well as the currents andtides, said associate professorBoris Worm.

New Brunswick's Bay of Fundyalready boasts the world's highest tides.

The idea here is to buy time so we can adapt.- Boris Worm,marine research ecologist

"So this means really that the Maritimes is at the losing end of this game," said Worm.

Thereport,entitled Global Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States, isbased on new insightsabout the Antarctic ice shelf.

Thelarge ice masses, hundreds of metres thick, that sit on the ocean floor andextend above the surface, were previously thought to be reasonably stable because there wasn't much melt water coming off them,said Worm.

However, researchers have discovered that the ice shelf is melting from the inside out, due to ocean temperatures rising.

"So what we're expecting is that large parts of it could break off and slide into the ocean and that would cause some very rapid sea level rise and that's why this extreme scenariothat nobody thought was possible has now become more likely," said Worm.

'Utterly catastrophic'

The upper limit prediction of 2.5 metres would be "utterly catastrophic," he said.

But it is a worst-case scenario, assuming nothing is done to halt climate change, said Worm, noting steps are being taken inCanada.

Still, New Brunswick is expected to see a 0.35 metre increase by the end of the this century, regardless of any reductions in fossil fuel emissions, said Worm.

"No matter what we do, that will happen, according tothis report," he said."It may happen as soon as 2030. Or,if more is done to slow climate change, it could happen as late as 2080."

Rises also bringincrease in storm surges

Every 0.35 metre increase alsoincreases the likelihood of powerful storm surges, which coastal New Brunswickers are all too familiar with,by 25 times, said Worm.

As it stands, surges that are powerful enough to cause significant damage and threaten human life occur in the U.S. about every five years.

Based on the report, "what happened every five years will happen five times a year in the future meaning all the time," he said.

"The idea here is to buy time so we can adapt," by developing strategies to protect vulnerable coastal infrastructure, such as building coastal protections and restoring wetlands to serve as storm buffers.

The report was released on the last day of Barack Obama's presidency.

"I can't help but think it was released one day beforePresident [Donald] Trump came into office because there was a sense that if he was in office, it might never be released," said Worm.

"And that's,I think, what's the most dangerous bit here, is we really have to look at this data with a very clear eye, without fearmongering or anything."

Worm contends the Maritimes as a whole could bemore proactive in looking at these new figures, figuring out how they affect the region and how best to plan for those changes.

"And I think that's probably something that's going to happen soon, I hope."