N.B. Tories surge in popular support: poll

The New Brunswick Progressive Conservatives are enjoying a post-election honeymoon of support, according to a Corporate Research Associates poll.

The quarterly political poll shows 61 per cent of decided voters support the Tories, followed by 25 per cent for the Liberals and 10 per cent for the New Democratic Party.

The Greens are receiving four per cent of support, while the People's Alliance of New Brunswick did not register any support.

The Tories won 48 per cent of the popularvote in the Sept. 27 election, well ahead of the Liberals, who garnered 34 per cent. The NDP won just 10 per cent of popular support.

When asked about their feelings on the Alward government's performance, 46 per cent said they were either mostly or completely satisfied compared to 11 per cent who said they were mostly or completely dissatisfied. The poll found 33 per cent of respondents thought it was "too soon to tell."

When CRA asked voters a similar question in August about the former Liberal government, 44 per cent said they were completely or mostly satisfied, while 49 per cent said they were completely or mostly dissatisfied.

Alward is also witnessing a jolt in personal support among New Brunswick voters.

The premier is the preferred leader of 45 per cent ofpoll respondents compared to 15 per cent of people who would prefer the next Liberal leader. Six per cent would prefer the next NDP leader.

Tom Bateman, a political scientist at St. Thomas University, said the strong support numbers for the Tories and for Alward could be attributed both to a post-election bump and people appreciating a difference in leadership style.

"It's two-thirds honeymoon, one-third [voters thinking] he is OK. Mr. Alward has been super-steady and he's allowed his cabinet ministers to front a lot of things and bear some of the bad news," Bateman said.

"Also, I suspect that he is not a man of real hyperbole and he is not trying to spin people out of their chairs."

Corporate Research Associates polled 404 voters betwen Nov. 15 and Dec. 1. The poll has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points, 95 times out of 100.

Honeymoon periods

A post-election bump in voter support for an incoming New Brunswick government is not uncommon.

Former Liberal premier Shawn Graham saw a significant surge in popular support during his post-election honeymoon.

Graham saw the Liberal party's support jolt up to 65 per cent up from the 47 per cent they received on the September 2006 election.

The Tories, however, dipped to 27 per cent from the 47 per cent the party received on voting day.

The Liberals rode high in the opinion polls until the Grahamgovernment attempted to sell NB Power to Hydro-Qubec.

The Tories may need to use some of that political capital when they usher in their first budget, which is expected to contain cuts to public services.

Finance Minister Blaine Higgs has already announced a one per cent cut to current government budgets and has warned departments that a further two per cent reduction will be coming in the 2011 budget.

Bateman said the Alward government is now in an "extraordinary campaign of conditioning New Brunswickers to a new era of austerity."

The fiscal reality facing the provincial government could require the Tories to ignore or postpone some of their election promises, the political scientist said.

Bateman said the high support numbers may give Alward a degree of political cover heading into the March budget.

"There is some room in those numbers for some backtracking. What helps the government here, is no one took [the campaign promises made by any party] very seriously in the campaign," Bateman said.