Lopsided polls should worry more than PCs, NDP

After Danny Williams's massive 2007 election win, the floor of the House of Assembly looked like a crime scene.

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• Liberals poised to win election with landslide, poll suggests

That election was a landslide. Williams won 44 of 48 seats. A mere three Liberals and one New Democrat were left to oppose one of the province's most popular premiers at the height of his political power.

So when the legislature re-opened, the carpet was riddled with indentations that marked the location of previously Liberal and NDP seats that had been repositioned to accommodate the overwhelming PC majority.

The carpet dents resembled chalk outlines. Each one marking a defeated opposition MHA.

It was a rough time for parliamentary democracy. The House of Assembly is already deficient when it comes to legislative committees and meaningful input for opposition MHAs and non-cabinet ministers.

Those shortcomings are magnified when things are as lopsided as they were during Williams's final term in office.

48-point gap

At times in the 2007 campaign, it looked like Williams might sweep all 48 seats.On election day, Williams and the PCs got 69 per cent of the vote to the Liberals' 21 per cent. A 48 percentage point gap.

Wins like that are extremely rare. But a recent poll suggests the 2015 campaign could be headed in a similar direction.

The day after Paul Davis dropped the writ to start this campaign, Abacus Data dropped a poll that had the Liberals with a 47 percentage point lead over the governing PCs.

Liberal landslide?

9 years ago

Duration 5:33

David Coletto of Abacus Research speaks with David Cochrane

At 66 per cent support among decided voters, the Liberals are just shy of what Williams got in 2007.

A majority government -- a large majority government -- seems likely. A sweep, though still unlikely, is not out of the question. It's enough to keep Ryan Cleary awake at night.

But it all raises big questions as to what type of legislature voters want after Nov. 30? The lopsided majority of 2007 led to lopsided democracy.

The Liberal caucus of three and the NDP caucus of one were no match for the mighty cluster of 44 PCs that sat across from them, next to them and practically surrounded them in the House of Assembly.

That time they seized the mill

Perhaps the most glaring example of this came in late 2008 when Williams moved to seize the Newfoundland assets of AbitibiBowater.

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The move was ostensibly about seizing the company's timber and water rights after AbitibiBowater shuttered the money losing Grand Falls-Windsor mill.

The legislation passed through the House of Assembly in just a matter of hours after the badly outnumbered and politically weak opposition parties helped push it through.

The only problem is that Williams expropriated more than he bargained for.

Instead of taking just the valuable assets from AbitibiBowater, the government mistakenly seized ownership of the decrepit and polluted mill. It found itself on the hook for hundreds of millions of dollars in environmental liabilities.

That was on top of the $150 million in cash and debt it had assumed as part of the intended expropriation and the $130 million in compensation Ottawa had to pay the company because the seizure violated the terms of NAFTA.

All three parties voted to add a half a billion dollars in cash, debt, penalties and environmental liabilities to the taxpayers' credit card in a single afternoon.

There were no legislative committees to study the expropriation. And no time even if such committees existed. The Liberals and the NDP had been so dominated in the election the year before, they didn't dare go against Williams and the public support for the move.

Seeking critical mass

Opposition parties need critical mass to be effective. Their funding grows as they gain MHAs. Meaning more money for research, travel and expertise.

But a larger opposition is also a stronger opposition. It can hold in check some of the worst traits that plague majority governments if it is a real electoral threat to the government. It can force a government to vigorously defend its legislation to the public. It can stop a premier from using high poll numbers and a large seat count as an excuse for nearly any action.

The possibility of a small and marginalized opposition increased earlier this year when the PCs and the Liberals brokered a deal to cut eight seats from the legislature.

The plan to reduce the House of Assembly from 48 seats to 40 was sold as a way of cutting costs in a time of low oil.

But its unintended outcome was to make the legislature more vulnerable to sweeps or a dominant government caucus.

Right now, an overwhelming Liberal majority seems the most likely outcome on Nov. 30. A sweep is unlikely.

But a dominant governing caucus similar to 2007 is possible, even probable.

That may be good for the Liberal party.

But is that good for Newfoundland and Labrador?