N.L. will 'need to do more' to meet 2030 emissions targets, briefing notes to Furey show

Newfoundland and Labrador is not on track tohit its 2030 greenhouse gas emissions targets, according to briefingnotes issued to Premier Andrew Furey ahead of his November trip tothe 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow.

Newfoundland and Labrador committed in 2019 to reducing emissionsto 7.4 million tonnes by 2030, or 30 per cent below its 2005emission levels.

Current provincial emissions sit at about 11 million tonnes, say briefing notes obtained by The Canadian Press through access toinformation legislation. That means emission levels would haveto drop by about 32 per cent by 2030 to hit the mark.

And though Furey told CBC News in November that he was at the UNconference in part to promote the province's offshore oil industryas a low-carbon energy solution, the briefing notes advised thetopic may not be popular.

"Low emissions oil and gas development may not be the focus ofattention at COP26," one note says. "Newfoundland and Labrador mayget questioned by experts about its carbon pricing system,particularly exemptions, and about its views on oil and gasdevelopment."

The climate change conference, often referred to as COP26, ranfrom Oct. 31 to Nov. 12. Furey was the only premier from Canada'stop three oil-producing provinces to attend; Alberta andSaskatchewan premiers Jason Kenney and Scott Moe stayed home.

The Canadian Press requested all briefing, speaking andcommunications notes provided to Furey in preparation for theconference and received over 70 pages of information in response.

Existing actions 'insufficient'

The notes advise Furey that countries are being asked to set moreambitious 2030 emission reduction goals.

In suggested talking points for Furey, the notes say, "Existingactions will be insufficient for us to reduce our emissions toachieve our 2030 target. We need to do more."

Data from the federalgovernment shows Newfoundland and Labrador's emissions haveincreased from 9.5 million tonnes in 1990 and 10.5 million tonnes in2005.

The briefing notes also say provincial 2030 targets are not inline with Canada's latest goals of reducing national greenhouse gasemissions by 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels. That would requirethe province to reduce total emissions to 6.3 million tonnes.

Memorial University climatologist Joel Finnis said while theprovince's emissions may seem small in comparison to somewhere likeAlberta, its carbon footprint is "huge" relative to its size.

Estonia, for example, has about two and a half times thepopulation of Newfoundland and Labrador but roughly the same yearlyemissions, according to a report from that country's government.

Finnis, an associate professor of geography, said he wasn'tsurprised to hear the province may miss its 2030 deadline. Takingmeaningful action to reduce emissions will come with costs andmassive readjustments the province, so far, doesn't seem to want toface, he said.

"We're going to have to accept a lot of inconveniences andsacrifices," he said in a recent interview. "But it's way betterto make these sacrifices today than to deal with the uncontrollableconsequences that would come from ongoing climate change."

The government's repeated narrative about the province's "lowcarbon" offshore oil is "nonsense," he added. "And it frankly,doesn't help us move the situation forward."

On Monday, the provincial government released an update on itsclimate change action plan and acknowledged the 2030 goals were inperil.

"Best available information suggests that, in the absence ofadditional actions in this decade, the 2030 target may not beachieved and our ability to achieve net zero (greenhouse gas)emissions by 2050 will be challenged," the update says.

Both the briefing notes and Monday's update point to the recentestablishment of an eight-person committee to advise the governmenton how it might hit the 2030 targets.

"We're pushing as hard as we can to hit every target we possiblycan," Environment Minister Bernard Davis said in an interviewMonday. He pointed to a provincial push, including a rebate program,to encourage the use of electric vehicles as an example of actiongovernment is taking to meet its 2030 deadline.

As for the province's oil sector, Davis said the world is in themidst of an energy transition.

"Hopefully that transition periodwill be as quick as we possibly can make it," he said. "But letthere be no doubt, there is a need for oil and gas right now in theglobal community. We've got to pivot, and find ways to createtechnologies that don't require that."

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