Waiting for the other budget shoe to drop

This Christmas, the lights were shiny, the food was everywhere, and the smiles were plentiful and yet, there was a dark, underlying thread.

I noticed it all the time, at this party, that drop-in, even just bumping into people on the street.

Namely, what's coming in the provincial budget, and more specifically, who's going to be out of work once Finance Minister Cathy Bennett rises in the House of Assembly at some yet-to-be-identified date in the weeks ahead?

On Thursday night, Bennett sat down with a few dozen people at the Knights of Columbus Hall in St. John's, to hash out some of the tough options her government faces.

• Tensions flare, minister gets an earful at budget meeting in St. John's
• Labour talks ongoing as N.L. government looks to trim $244M in spending

Some of those who attended made it clear by often yelling they've had it with austerity.

Bennett didn't seem deterred, and a revelation about layoffs won't be a surprise, of course.

Tense discussion between Cathy Bennett and upset residents

8 years ago

Duration 1:53

Displeasure from Newfoundland and Labrador's 2016 budget could still be heard at a consultation for the government's 2017 budget.

Last April, the governing Liberals not only unleashed a harsh budget that focused on raising revenue tax hikes, fee increases, a new levy but outlined a plan that included a fall mini-budget and then the grand finale: the budget of 2017.

Last fall's announcement turned out to be a shadow of what had originally been described, but the budget ahead is still looming.

And public servants not to mention others whose income comes from your taxes are understandably nervous.

Cutting from the top down

While scarfing down cookies or sipping drinks, I had a few conversations with friends about the upcoming budget. Sometimes I didn't even have to raise it.

"It's all everybody talks about," one friend, who works for a provincial agency, told me.

Another was blunt. "Everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop," he said, pointing out how the Liberals eliminated some key senior roles in the public service, one step at a time.

Five deputy ministers were shown the door in August. In October, 15 assistant deputy ministers followed.

Those moves did not come cheap: $852,000 for one cut, $1.8 million for a second, about $2 million for a third.

But in the long run, these cuts of course do not solve much in the way of a swollen, almost overwhelming deficit.

'Drop in the bucket'

Indeed, before the 12 days of Christmas were through, Premier Dwight Ball came in for a CBC Radio interview and acknowledged that the cuts already done are "a drop in the bucket" compared to a much larger spending problem that has been building up for years.

Dwight Ball in conversation with St. John's Morning Show host Anthony Germain

8 years ago

Duration 15:05

Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Dwight Ball is questioned on Muskrat Falls, the provincial deficit and more, in an interview Thursday with St. John's Morning Show host Anthony Germain.

Speaking with CBC earlier this week, Bennett said the government needs to eliminate $244 million in spending.

To put things in perspective, the whole provincial expenditure is $8.5 billion, which makes the spending target seem like Tweetie Bird standing next to Big Bird.

But 244 is a lot of millions, and remember that in every corner of the public service classrooms, nursing homes, highways and, yes, the nervous hallways of Confederation Building human resources are by far the biggest budget area.

In other words, it will be impossible for Bennett to achieve that "very significant number" without there being casualties, no matter how often Premier Dwight Ball has said he wants to avoid layoffs.

The dread right over your head

Anyone who's been through a cycle of uncertainty the knowledge that some of your colleagues will soon be gone, perhaps even you knows how wearying it can be. Morale takes a dive, the workplace feels edgier, and dread seems to hang overheard.

All kinds of things have ground to a halt. Vacations are not being planned or at least the travel. New cars are not being bought. Renovations and even repairs are postponed.

Government itself is foregoing what it can. Just as a family puts off new appliances or a furniture set or a Florida vacation, the province is skipping on stuff it would like, but cannot afford.

• Read more articles by John Gushue

But the cabinet is dealing with more than just a short-term crunch. The long-range demographic problems alone (retirees are growing in number, and their health-care needs will grow more complex, and costly, as the years pass) must keep more conscientious politicians awake at night.

So, the public service waits nervously.

Another shoe is going to drop soon.

But the final shoe? Not a chance. There may just be a shoe rack of things to fall upon us yet.