The way our leaders are responding to cascading crises is completely predictable

This column is an opinion by Lori Lee Oates. For more information about CBC's Opinion section, please see the FAQ.

"What you see most is leaders do more of what they do. They intensify what they do because they don't know about doing something else and it is almost always counterproductive."

That is a quote from Arthur Demarest, an anthropologist who studies the collapse of civilizations and frequently works with business leaders.

He maintains that there are certain characteristics of decline that show up across civilizations and businesses before collapse.

One of the most predictable features of decline is that rather than trying something new or going in a new direction, leaders double down on doing more of what they already know how to do.

For example, when the ancient Mayan civilization was in decline, their leaders built more temples to the gods. You can see how this would have been less than productive.

Despite the best warnings of civil society, our provincial leaders have systematically ignored the evidence regarding our democratic institutions, the financial crisis, the inequality of our age and the perils of climate change.

This has led to a series of cascading crises including historic levels of debt, insufficient planning for apandemic election, strikes involvingessential workers and failure to diversify our oil-dependent economy.

Why backroom deals have such appeal

Our leaders still fight the realities that are staring them in the face. There was some debate over whether it was correct for PC Leader Ches Crosbie to use the word "bankruptcy" on the campaign trail.

Liberal Leader Andrew Furey took issue with the word, calling it "irresponsible language to use with our federal partners."Given his runaway lead in the polls at the outset of the campaign, the premier hitsurprisingly hard with the comeback, "He's bankrupt of ideas."

Bankruptcy by definition is a declaration that you cannot pay your bills. Over the lastyear, our provincial government has struggled to make payroll and neededOttawa to cover the paymentson Muskrat Falls.

It is not surprising that the governing party is trying to divert attention from this on the campaign trail, as most of the debt has grown on their watch.

Our leaders have been warned for some time that the province was taking on too much debt and not getting enough money from the federal government. I warned of it myself.

Instead of dealing with the very real problem with inequitable federal transfers and the federal retreat from services, our leaders have focused on backroom deals for rate mitigation, the Atlantic Accord, money for oil companies, and general bailouts when we cannot pay the bills.

Backroom deals are what our leaders know. Backroom deals also lack the accountability of public transfers and equalizations formulas. Leaders like backroom deals because they lack accountability. It is a process of elite accommodation that gives them all the control.

Section 36 of the Constitution Act, 1982, clearly guarantees equality of services across provinces. This is not what is being delivered when British Columbia has the No. 4 health-care system in the world, Ontario has the seventh, and Newfoundland and Labrador is 27th.

Elections preparedness

Our leaders seemto have learned the lesson that a pandemic election is a good way to turn a minority government into a majority. They failed to learn how other jurisdictions prepared for their pandemic elections.

British Columbia gave its chief electoral officerbroad powers to address emergencies and extraordinary circumstances. They put in place plans for safe polling stations, safe district officesand guidelines for safe campaigning.B.C.'s elections advisory committee, which includes representation from all parties, met twice prior to the election to discuss planning for a safe election.

This is how you attend to your democratic institutions to make sure they meet the needs of citizens, as conditions evolve.

Here, the governing Liberals have twice run on a promise of democratic reform. It was included in their platform in 2015 and 2019.

Committees of the House of Assembly have been set up, but nothing has been accomplished.

The word "democratic" does not even appear in the 2021 Liberal platform.

In search of evidence

Fureysaid in the Liberal leadership debate last June that "we need to look at the frameworks of decision-making and gain the best evidence available."

Rather than investing in government's research capacity, the tendency has been towardincreased centralization of power in the premier's office. (Notably, the word "evidence"also does not appear in the most recent red book.)

Setting up task forces that report directly to the premier's office bypasses the professional public service and their corporate memory of the province's policy history. It steers us away from the people who read the research and towardpower.

Meanwhile, the Progressive Conservative blue book mentions evidence twice but theNew Democratic Party orange book does not mention it.

None of them mentionthe emission reduction climate targets that scientists have been calling for by 2030.

Only the NDP are running on a $15 minimum wage, even though the evidence is that increasing the minimum wage lifts the whole economy and creates jobs. Getting to $15 in two years would still leave us far below a living wage in Newfoundland and Labrador.

A policy reckoning

We're in for a post-pandemic policy reckoning, likely on a global scale.

Pandemic preparedness, green energy, and research and development are the issues that policy experts tell us will determine our safety and security as citizens in the future. These are becoming more important than military preparedness.

Experts also note that global debt and inequality are issues that must be addressed by healthy and functioning societies.

Meanwhile, our leaders are busy doubling down on backroom deals, fossil fuels, partisanship, megaprojects, infrastructure we cannot affordand positive thinking.

It would be nice if we were talking about the real issues instead of trying to defend our right to vote.

But hey, majorities provide stability!

For political parties, that is.

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