Birth numbers in N.L. stagnant in 2021, a trend 'almost impossible' to reverse, say experts

The number of annual deaths in Newfoundland and Labrador outweighed births last year, adding to a data trend that population experts say will be almost impossible to break.

According to numbers provided by the provincial government'svital statistics division, the province recorded 3,838 births in 2021 an increase of 193 from an all-time low in 2020 and 5,169 deaths, a difference of 1,331.

Newfoundland and Labrador's fertility and birth rates have been dropping year over year since the 1980s, when the province had one of the highest fertility rates in the country,according to Jamie Ward, who manages the Regional Analytics Lab at Memorial University's Harris Centre, which studies population demographics and public policy.

"There is a very long-term established trend in the province, sort of based on our lower-than-replacement-level fertility rates," Ward told CBC News earlier this month.

"When you have that for a long time and you have an aging of the population you have fewer and fewer child-bearing-age women. You would also expect, everything else being equal, to have fewer and fewer babies, especially given some of the economic head winds and whatnot."

Ward said the province's fertility ratehas dropped in recent years to about 1.5 births per woman of child-bearing age, well below the level needed to maintain a population, just over two births per woman.

External provincial factors play a part, said Ward, including a higher cost of living, underdeveloped rural areas and a lack of jobs, somewhich prompt some people to leave the provincefor other opportunities.

"We have a long history of net interprovincial outmigration, where loads and loads of people, in the thousands per year historically for a very long time, we've lost predominantly young people to other provinces," he said."So when youre core child-bearing population is leaving for an extended period of time, that definitely starts to factor in."

Families change with factors at play

Laura Doyle of Bay Bulls says she's been lucky enough to keep her family in the province, but realizes not everyone has the same opportunity.

"Anumber of people, in Newfoundland especially, work away from home," Doyle said. "There's a lot of families where one person is gone almost half the year, so it definitely makes it a lot more work on the person at home to manage multiple children in their family and maintain it all."

Doyle and her husband, Chris, have three children under the age of 12. Both grew up with three siblingsand they alwayswanted to have a large family of their own.

But families like the Doyles are becoming less common.

It's partly due to the way society has developed, according to Harris Centre director Rob Greenwood. As more women of child-bearing age seek more education and sustainable employment, they tend to put off having children until much later.

For Doyle, there are other provincial factors that come into play.

"Cost of living is definitely a high one on the list," she said. "Having a number of small children, I find that our heat and light increased with every child. There's more laundry, there's more bath time. A lot of those things go up."

More early childhood education options for parents and more financial help for maternity leave would help encourage people to start families younger, said Doyle.

Population and adaptation

Greenwood says reversing Newfoundland and Labrador's birthing trends is a challenge that won't be easily solved.

"It's very hard, if not impossible, to reverse those trends. We need to do whatever we can to make family-friendly policies, but reversing those fertility rates isn't going to happen easily," he said.

"We have a lot of work to do, so we need many strings to our bow."

The Newfoundland and Labrador government wants immigration to be a string on that bow, setting a goal of welcoming 5,100 immigrants into the province per year by 2026.More than 1,600 immigrants came to Newfoundland and Labrador last year, according to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.

Immigration can help build the population, said Greenwood, but it's also important for the government to work to create policies that help keep people in the province.

"People who sell products to customers know it's easier to serve an existing customer than to try to get a new customer," he said.

"Similarly it's much easier to work with the existing population who live here and work to make a better quality of life and a better labour market and better training and keep people from moving."

Greenwood also compared population change to climate change, in that officials need to keep the numbers from getting lower now but also adapt tothe future.

He said that will come with good governance, education and training, an economy that makesbetter use of digitization and automation, andleveraging the province's appeal and natural resources,

"Medium to long term, I remain an eternal optimist. We have to be proactive around adaptation, more training, more productivity.But [this is] a great place to be, in my mind. I don't plan to go anywhere else."

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