COVID-19 modelling more challenging as case numbers shrink, says biologist

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, Newfoundland and Labrador's COVID-19 modelling team has been working to predict how things might unfold, but with the number of active cases in the province down to zero, one team member says forecasting has become more challenging.

"I think we have a harder job here in Newfoundland," Amy Hurford, a mathematical biologist at Memorial University, told CBC Radio'sOn The Goon Thursday.

"It's kind of one problem to have a curve but it's a much harder question to say, 'We have no active cases in the province right now, what's going to happen in the future?' It's almost like you have no information here right now to answer that question."

Hurfordand the province's COVID-19 modelling team, led by Dr. Proton Rahman, released theirfirst datamodel in April, which suggested the province could run out of intensive-care units by June. However, as the number of active cases changed, so did the forecast.

"That was one of the things that really surprised me and I think surprised everyone," Hurford said. "Everywhere across the world, we were doing modelling to try to look at how things are going to unfold in different regions. I think at the time, we thought we were headed to surge capacity like everyone else.

"Credit to the hard work of all the people of Newfoundland and Labrador," she added. "In a lot of ways I'm really surprised how effective we were."

I think we still have to remain expecting that we're going to see a second outbreak.- Amy Hurford

Although the province has gone 30 days without a newcase of COVID-19, Hurford said trends still suggest a second outbreak could happen in Newfoundland and Labrador.

"We have a large fraction of our population, pretty much 100 per cent, who are still susceptible to the virus," she said.

"I think we still have to remain expecting that we're going to see a second outbreak."

Hurfordsaid a second outbreak may come further down the road, and shedoesn't expect the upcoming Atlantic bubble will bring a lot of infection to the province.

Even if more advancements are made, she said, the data isn't the only information used to make public health decisions.

"These more complex decisions that relate to all aspects of our lives, those are decisions for public health or experts in other areas," Hurford said. "We just really focus on making the predictions.

"My training is in mathematics, but I don't have training in public health or training in economics. You do the predictions, but there's a lot of people with expertise to bring to the table. It's got to be a collaborative effort."

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