DFO has a new plan for northern cod stocks. It doesn't include more fishing

Decades after the moratorium on cod fishing, the federal government has quietly released its vision to rebuild the northern cod stocks inNewfoundland and Labrador's waters a plan that hasn't gone unnoticed and uncritiqued by the province's fisheries union.

The rebuilding plan, made public with little fanfare on Dec. 21 after years in development, outlinesthe Department of Fisheries and Ocean'sobjectives to boost fish numbersand the management techniques it intends to use to measure any progressstarting in 2021.

Northern cod numbers haveticked upwardsince the 1992 moratorium brought harvestingand processingto a screeching halt. Asmall stewardship fishery now exists, with 1,865 licence holders allotted a maximum harvest of around 12,000 tonnes of cod in 2020.

But 28 years later,stocks remain well below pre-moratorium levels,and in DFO terminology remain squarely in a "critical zone."

To move stocks out of that zone hinges on the rebuilding plan's "harvest decision rule." That ruleessentially tries to keep fishing efforts at the minimum, setting quotas based on annual scientific assessmentsuntil cod numbers climb into the "cautious zone," while at the same time attempting to givefish harvesters some predictability ofhow much they can expect to catch from year to year.

"We believe this is our best path forwardat this time, in terms of promoting growth of the northern cod stock, where we can get it hopefully out of the critical zone, and we can eventually get to a point where we can have a more sustainable fishery," said Julie Diamond, a resource manager with DFO for the Newfoundland and Labrador region.

The plan outlines short- and long-term objectives to boost cod stocksbut acknowledgesunpredictability means no timelines can be setfor its goals.

I'd even suggest it should be a resettlement plan instead of a rebuilding plan, because what's released is so nonsensical.- Keith Sullivan

However, the plan is meant to provide openness andtransparency with industry stakeholders, said Diamond. "It formalizes our commitment to keep fishing efforts relatively low."

That last plank does not sit wellwith the Fish, Food &Allied Workersunion.

"We agree that the idea of goals, targets, transparency, a rebuilding plan makes sense. It'sjust not this one," saidFFAW president Keith Sullivan.

Hinging a return to commercial-level fishingon a hazy point in the future when cod numbers may rise above a certain threshold spells trouble for rural communities,he told CBC News.

"We have a rebuilding plan that says there is really not a future for harvesters and people in Newfoundland and Labrador, no matter how much cod there is. And that's why it's a problem," Sullivan said.

"I'd even suggest it should be a resettlement plan instead of a rebuilding plan, because what's released is so nonsensical. And it just doesn't give any opportunities for people to have a reasonable cod fishery in the future."

Fishing not the biggest problem

The plan acknowledges that fishing is not the main reason cod numbers remain a shadow of its formerteeming bounty.

"The primary threat limiting survival and recovery of 2J3KL cod today is high natural mortality," states the plan. The "2J3KL" refersto the fishing management zone.

That natural mortality includes everything from seal predation to temperature effectsbut more so than those factors, the plan highlights shortages of food that cod need, particularly capelin.

"High mortality rates may be related to cod dying of starvation."

While the full annual cod numbers assessment didn't go ahead in 2020 due to the pandemic, DFO science this past springshowedcod are resorting to cannibalism to survive, with a non-profit conservation group calling for the rebuilding plan to show leadership in the area.

Theplan offers no path toward tackling the food source problem. It emphasizes that the uncertainty around that mortality makes it impossible to predict where cod numbers will be three years from now, and leaves the capelin issue as one largely outside human control.

"One of the only factors that we have any influence on is fishing effort, and that's what this plan focuses on," Diamond told CBC Radio's The Broadcast.

Sullivan disputed the starvation problem, saying there isn't enough evidence at the moment to support it,but he would like to see more investigation of the mortality rates.

"If the fish are not healthy, we've got to get to the bottom of it so we can understand it," he said.

But Sullivan said sacrificing rebuilding acommercial fishery while such science continues is frustrating, particularly as harvesters are seeing abundance out at sea.

"I think fish harvesters have the same goal. They want this stock healthy. They want to see it rebuild and it to be a really meaningful part of their livelihoods going forward," he said.

Consultation issues

Sullivan said the FFAW was caught off guard by the rebuilding plan's releaseand that harvesters had not been consulted in recent years.

"This really puts anyclamp on hope for reasonable increases in cod, you know, so that's why it's so discouraging," he said.

"That's why we need to go back to the drawing board and really work and consult with harvesters who this means so much to."

However, Diamond said DFO's meetings with stakeholders about the plan have beenongoing since 2013.

"It's been a long process," she said.

Diamond said the department is trying to balance growing cod numbers with providing "reasonable fishing opportunities."

The plan itself states nothing is set in stone, and Sullivan takes hope that there may be room to revise.

"I think the best thing we can do here is to go back and have a discussion on what will really work here, because I don't think this rebuild, this particular part of the plan, has been thought through."

The FFAW has contacted DFO, said Sullivan, but no plans for meetings have been made.

Read morefrom CBC Newfoundland and Labrador