Arctic survey suggests concern about potential conflict

Security fears in the Arctic are growing,suggests a new survey of people from the eight countries that ringthe North Pole.

"There is a sense that there is a threat," said Sara French ofthe Munk-Gordon Arctic Security program, which conducted the surveyof 10,000 people as Canada prepares to hand off leadership of theArctic Council to the United States this weekend.

The council, which organizes social and environmental researchand regulation in the North, has been seen as a model ofinternational co-operation. It has even negotiated a bindinginternational treaty on search and rescue operations.

But Russia's actions in Ukraine, as well as recent massive Arcticmilitary exercises and bomber missions up to the edge ofinternational airspace, may have thrown a chill into northernco-operation.

Defence Minister Jason Kenney has called Russia's recent militaryactions in the Arctic "aggressive." Federal Environment MinisterLeona Aglukkaq has said she'll take Canada's concerns over Russia'sbehaviour in Ukraine to her Russian counterpart at the meeting.

About one-third of the people surveyed in five of the eightArctic countries believes the threat of armed conflict in the Arcticgrew over the last year. That ranges from 24 per cent in thecontinental U.S. to 35 per cent in Norway.

Among Canadians, that percentage stands at 36 per cent in thesouth and 30 per cent among northerners.

And in Iceland, Finland and Russia, slight majorities agreed theArctic is less peaceful this year than last.

Meanwhile, fewer than one in 10 surveyed in each country felt thethreat had decreased in the region.

Many would even like to see Russia excluded from the council.About 38 per cent of respondents in southern Canada felt that way,along with 32 per cent of Americans and 44 per cent of Swedes.

But French pointed out that none of the eight countriesregistered a majority wanting Russia out of the council. And she
added that in Russia, only five per cent of the people wanted toleave the council.

"There's no doubt that the kind of politics (we've seen) arehaving a spillover effect," she said. "The desire to want to
continue to co-operate is still there."

Other findings suggest respondents are still willing to givepeace a chance in the North.

The survey found that support for military spending in the Northhas dropped in Canada. Only about half of southern Canadians agree,down from 60 per cent five years ago.

The survey also found only a minority supports taking a firm linewith other countries in any future border disputes. Support fornegotiation in such disputes has grown over the last five years, thesurvey says.

French said much of the political rhetoric over the Arctic fromvarious leaders is intended for domestic political consumption. Thereal work of the Arctic Council is unaffected, she said.

"In Canada and Russia, there's two different Arcticdiscussions," she said.

One is held at conference tables and meetings, the other is withheadlines and sound bites.

"This other discussion has tended to play into national myths,"French said. "Keen Arctic observers can separate the two."