For green activists, Arctic drilling could be the next big thing

Michael Brune is pleased thatactivists in kayaks are training for another "Paddle in Seattle"to confront an expected Royal Dutch Shell rig on itsway to the Arctic to explore for oil. What makes the head of theSierra Club just as happy is the effect Shell's Arctic ambitionsare having on his own environmental organization.

Sierra's funding drive against the resumption in Arctic drilling has taken in three times more money than usualcampaigns by the nation's oldest green group, said Brune, thoughhe wouldn't reveal specific amounts. And the group's petitionopposing President Barack Obama's decision in favor of Shelllast month has collected more signatures than any appeal in twoyears.

"Our members are outraged because they believe fightingclimate change is a moral challenge and they ask how thepresident can reconcile this move with his goals on climate change," Brune said. "All of it is getting a much higher
response rate than we expected."

With its pristine landscapes, the Arctic has always captured the imagination of environmentalists around the world. But
Shell's exploration plans were a reminder that the polar regionis home to what the U.S. government estimates is 20 per cent ofthe world's undiscovered oil and gas.

For environmental groups from the Sierra Club to Greenpeace,that combination makes Arctic drilling a powerful symbol for thebroader fight over climate change. Global activists areincreasingly focused on stopping major extraction projects, withthe aim of keeping carbon reserves buried to avoid emissionsmany scientists say would result in runaway global warming.

The stakes are also high for Shell, which has alreadyinvested $7 billion in Arctic operations, though commercial oil
production remains 10 to 15 years away. Shell understands somepeople oppose Arctic drilling, but global energy demand isexpected to double by 2050, said spokesman Curtis Smith. "We'llneed energy in all forms, and Alaska's outer continental shelfresources could play a crucial role in helping meet thatchallenge," he said.

Global battle

But as Arctic drilling becomes a test of wills,environmental groups say they have gained oxygen from theirsuccess in partially closing other gateways to large carbonextraction.

Sierra has sued in recent years to drive some of thenation's dirtiest coal plants into retirement, an effort aidedby low natural gas prices and Obama's climate rules. Pressurefrom groups such as the grassroots network 350.org has beeninstrumental in delaying the Obama administration's decision onthe Keystone XL pipeline, meant to expand theconnection betweenCanada's oil sands and Gulf coast refineries, for more than sixyears.

"People are becoming really savvy about what each of thesebattles mean and the part we can play," said EmilyJohnston, asmall-home builder in Seattle who was arrested in 2011 at theWhite House protesting Keystone.

Johnston joined a multitude of groups and ordinary citizensthat swarmed Shell's Polar Pioneer rig last month when it
arrived in Seattle's port. Shell is deciding whether to send asecond rig, the Noble Discoverer to the port, en route to Alaska. If it does kayakers will confront that one too. But thisis not a local battle: Arctic drilling resonates with theenvironmental movement far beyond Seattle.

"We've seen expressions of support from Argentina toAmsterdam," said Travis Nichols, a spokesman on Arctic issues atGreenpeace, which has collected nearly 280,000 signatures undera petition against drilling in the region since March1. Only15,500 of those came from the United States.

A petition at Avaaz.org, a global activist network thatcalls on Seattle Mayor Ed Murray to stop Shell from using thecity's port has accumulated over 1.19 million signatures in 17languages, including French, Dutch and Arabic.

Jamie Henn, a spokesman for 350.org, said its Facebook poston the paddlers who confronted Shell's first rig on May16 wasits most popular in two-and-a-half years, reaching more than 5.2million people across the world.

Poster child

Henn said that Shell's Arctic drilling quest will make it a"poster child" for a campaign to encourage investors to divestholdings from fossil fuel companies. If so, it would be a blowto Shell, which has tried to burnish its imagewithenvironmentalists in recent years by being a leader among oiland gas companies in recognizing the climate risksof carbonemissions.

Anthony Leiserowitz, a climate communications expert at YaleUniversity, said Arctic drilling galvanizes a globalaudiencebecause unlike local issues such as oil and gas extraction byhydraulic fracturing, or fracking theregion has becomesynonymous with the fate of the planet's climate.

"Fracking is for most people relatively invisible and hardto imagine," Leiserowitz said. Drilling in the Arctic, on theother hand, involves enormous rigs that can be targeted byactivists for spectacular photo ops that help with fundraising.

And its receding ice cap which scientists say results fromrising temperatures and has repercussions for the earth'sclimate and sea levels puts the Arctic at the center of globalconsciousness on climate issues.

That is one reason Obama's decision to grant Shell a permithas generated a greater backlash against the presidentthan hisdecision to allow exploratory drilling off the U.S. East Coast.

With so much capital invested, few oil analysts expect Shellto give up unless they encounter lengthy delays fromregulatorsor investors start to balk at the risks. The company hopes toproduce at least 1 million barrels per day in the Chukchi in 10or 15 years.

"For Shell to back down at this point, it's a defeat, it'sdisgraceful, it's costly," said Fadel Gheit, an energy company analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.

But Leiserowitz said greens, who have fought to keep wideswaths of the Arctic off limits, are in the fight for the longterm. "This has legs," he said, about environmental groupsorganizing to stop Arctic drilling. "It could easily just begetting going."