MLAs could topple Yukon's Liberal government this week. How likely is it to happen?

Yukon's Official Opposition iscalling for a confidence vote on the Liberal government a vote that, if it follows convention, could bring down theminority government.

Butaccording to a former clerk of Yukon's legislative assembly, the odds of that happening are low.

The opposition Yukon Party also needs the support of the NDP for the vote to pass. Leader Kate White said that's not likely.

Yukon Party Leader Currie Dixon said he brought the motion to the floor of the Legislature this week because he believes the Liberalshavefailed on several big files, including the doctor shortage and the COVID-19 vaccine mandate.

The biggest concern for the Yukon Party though is that Premier Sandy Silver refused to force Tracy-Anne McPhee, the former education minister, to resign from cabinet over the Hidden Valley school sexual abuse case even though a majority of MLAs voted in favour of thatin another non-binding vote earlier in the session.

"I thought it was important for Yukoners to know that we view this government as no longer having the confidence of Yukoners," Dixon told reporters on Monday. "I think it's important to bring that to a vote."

Next moves up to Liberals if vote passes, former clerk says

If the Liberals lose a non-confidence vote that could take place on Wednesday, it would mean they no longer have the confidence of the assemblyto govern.

However,Floyd McCormick, a former clerk of the legislature, says the vote is non-binding.

"It's up to the government at that point to decide what it wants to do," McCormick told CBC.

If the vote passes, the premier will have several options, McCormick continued. Silvercould ignore the outcome of the vote and continue to hold power, or follow convention and go to the commissioner ofYukon to either resign as the government or to dissolve the assembly, triggering an election.

If the premier decides to ignore the outcome of the vote, McCormick continued, it could have political consequences with the opposition parties.

"The government would have to think in terms of, are [the opposition] willing to back up this expression of non-confidence with some genuine action," McCormick said.

"Do they start voting down bills? Do they make it impossible for the government to actually govern?"

The commissioner could also grant the Opposition a chance to form government andavoid an election, McCormick continued. That's not a guarantee, however, that Dixon will become premier.

NDP shoots down deal with Yukon Party

An election call is what Dixon told reporters he is trying to avoid. He's suggestinghis party could instead form a new minority government, without going to the polls.

Dixon tried to approach Kate White, leader of the NDP, late last Friday with a proposition: the Yukon Partywould adopt the Confidence and Supply Agreement (CASA) that the NDP signed with the Liberals at the beginning of their mandate, if White's partyvotes in favour of this week's non-confidencemotion.

Theagreement signed last spring between the Liberals and NDP sets out a list of shared priorities, such asintroducing more aggressive emission reductiontargets, putting in place a 24/7 walk-in clinic in Whitehorse and creating a territory-wide dental care plan.

One of the terms of the agreement is that the NDP "will neither move, nor vote non-confidence," until the CASA expires in January 2023. It's not clear whether this agreement is legally binding, according to White.

Dixon has also suggestedcalling a public inquiry into Hidden Valley something that White said on CBC's Yukon Morning that she supported.

Still, White said she would not support the Yukon Party in Wednesday's non-confidence vote.

"My first five years were under a Yukon Party government, and the lateral violence in the House was brutal," White told reporters. "These were people who were bullish and had no problem bullying people around them."

Yukon PartyMLAs lumped the NDP into their attacks on the Liberal government's record in Question Period on Monday, after White's public refusal of their offer.

"The Liberals, propped up by their NDP partners," is how many Yukon Party MLAsphrasedtheir questions on topics like the doctor shortage, midwifery regulations, and Hidden Valley.

Motion top of the agenda in Wednesday's sitting

The Yukon Party plans tobring up its non-confidence motion as the first thing on the agenda for debate on Wednesday thelast day of opposition business before the end of the fall session.

A vote could take place after the debate, if there's enough time left in the sitting day.

According to procedure, Dixon, the mover of the motion, and the first member to reply will have unlimited speaking time on the floor. All MLAs after that will have 20 minutes to weigh in.

If the debate goes past 5:30 p.m., the vote will be postponed until the next opposition day which will not be until the spring session.

If the motion is defeated, McCormick said, it means that the Legislature is back to the status quo, and there is no longer a challenge to the Liberal government.

If it passes, McCormick said that's when the government needs to decidewhat comes next.