Graham Steele: Politicians pay close attention to polls

How many times have we heard a politician say I dont pay attention to polls?

Or the only poll that counts is on election day?

What a laugh.

Of course politicians pay attention to polls.

In fact our political leaders are obsessed with polls, focus groups, and any other opinion research they can get their hands on.

They just dont want to admit it.

Behind closed doors, our leaders and their closest advisers are like a new priesthood, examining every polls entrails to see what it tells them about the will of the gods (also known as the public mood). They fuss over methodology, jealously guard their own private polls, and use esoteric vocabulary like cross-tab and N.

Two key points on polls

For now, well leave aside the intricacies of polling methodology.There are two key points to keep in mind when looking at any political poll.

The first is that nobody should put much stock in a single poll. One pollis a snapshot in time. The world is in motion, so the trend is what counts.

The second key point is that the margin of error matters. Its better to think of poll results as ranges (e.g. between 20 per cent and 27 per cent support) rather than a precise point (e.g. 23.5 per centsupport). Any change within the range may be no change at all.

With those two key points firmly in mind, lets turn to the latest poll from Corporate Research Associates (CRA), released earlier this week.

A message and a question

The CRA poll carries a message, and a question, for each of the three major parties.

The message for the Liberals is that theyre still on their honeymoon, and that is itself an achievement. CRA has not seen such a long honeymoon since at least 1999.

As Ive noted before,the McNeil government has done one great big thing in their first year, and that is to seize the initiative on public-sector collective bargaining.

But other than that, there has been little verve or energy. For example, they received the urgent call to action from the Ivany commission in February, then disappeared with it into the backrooms of government. Freeman on education, and Broten on taxation, also disappeared into the backrooms.

The Liberals have studied everything, and now theyre studying the studies.

The question for the Liberals is whether coasting on charm will continue to be a winner for them. With poll numbers like these, it has to be tempting. But when the honeymoon wears off and it does, it always does what will be left to keep the marriage interesting?

The message for Jamie Baillie and the Progressive Conservatives is rougher. The only leader/party number in the entire CRA poll outside the margin of error (3.5 per cent) is the slide in Baillies support. Hes at 14 per cent, down from 19 per centin the last quarter. The PC party itself hovers around the 20 per centmark.

After four years in the leaders chair, and after a year as leader of the opposition, Baillie should be getting more traction. Instead, hes getting less.

The question for the Progressive Conservatives is whether its time for a new strategy. Whatever the strategy is now, its not working.

The message for the NDP is pretty tough, too. Theyre down to 15 per centsupport, roughly their historical level of core support, meaning the people who will vote NDP no matter what. If an election were held today, they might win a few seats, or none.

Interim leaders tend not to attract much support, and Maureen MacDonald, however capable and experienced she is, is no exception. The best she can do is to hold the party together as it limps towards a leadership convention.

The question for the NDP is whether theyve pushed their leadership vote too far into the future. In order not to interfere with the federal election, theyve put off picking a new leader until 2016.

But the next NDP leader will need time to grow into the job, and there will be little runway left before the next provincial election in 2017.

In public, all parties will downplay this latest poll. But in the backrooms, the Liberals are high-fiving, and the Conservatives and New Democrats are wringing their hands.