Atlantic hurricane season outlook updated, more storms expected

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationhas updated itsoutlook for the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Forecasters on Thursday increased the likelihood of an above-normal season to 60 per cent, which is up from a30 per centchance in the outlook the agency issued in May.

The earlier projection of 12 to 17 named stormshas now increased to 14 to 21 storms.

Of those storms, six to 11 could become hurricanes. Of those,two to fivemay become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or greater.

It's important to remember that these outlooks are for overall season activity, not storms that make landfall.

Heading into the season,it was thought that a developingEl Nio couldlimit tropical storms and hurricaneactivity. When a warmer-water El Nio event is underway in the Pacific, stronger wind shear occurs over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic Ocean. This wind shear can suppress the development and growth of tropical storms and hurricanes.

WhileEl Niohas developed, itsimpacts on the tropical region are nowlooking less likely to counterbalance the other major factor of thisseason warm ocean temperatures.

While temperatures in the North Atlantic were expected to be above average, the record warmthin the basin has been making headlines over the past few months.

Sea-surface temperatures in theNorth Atlantic havebeen well above average since the early spring and have been on record-crushingpace since June.

While the largest sea-surface temperatureanomalies are currently aroundAtlantic Canada and Greenland, the tropical Atlantic and main storm development region isalso running well above average.

Thewarmer ocean temperatures in the tropics will be key, withthe West African monsoon season expected to be near-to-above average.

Large areas of thunderstorms off the coast of Africa are the seeds for tropical systems, especially when they roll into ocean water that is running warmer than normal.

While we can't ultimately tell where and when these storms will occur, we do know that the month of September is historically the most active.

With damage from post-tropical storms Fiona in 2022and Dorian in 2019fresh on theminds of Atlantic Canadians, we really don't need a reminder of how destructive these storms can be.

The updatedoutlook isa good reminder that the time to be ready and prepared is almost here.