Ottawa's race between the COVID-19 vaccine and the variants

It's been a great week for COVID-19 vaccine news in Ottawa.

Health Canada approved a fourth vaccine. The federal government announced more doses than expected of thePfizer-BioNTechvaccine will be delivered this month. The province laid out an acceleratedinoculation plan that pledges anyone can get a doseby the start of summer. The city began vaccinating the 80-and-overcrowd, starting with peopleliving in some of the highest-risk communities.

But when it comes to other COVID-19 developments, it's been a worrying week.

Many coronavirus indicators case counts, hospitalizations, wastewater measurements are on the rise.Ottawa is on the edge of more-restrictive red zone, when the city'strying to move to the less-stringent yellow.

Perhaps most concerning of all is the news that the number of COVID-19 cases involving variants hasjumped substantially.

For weeks we've known there were 10 suchcases confirmed in Ottawa. But this week,Medical Officer of Health Dr.Vera Etches revealed initial screening hadidentifiedan additional 73 cases involvingmore transmissible versions of the virus.

• 73 suspected COVID-19 cases involving variants in Ottawa
• Dr. Vera Etches says it seems Ottawa's 3rd COVID-19 wave is coming

It's even showing up in the wastewater a harbinger of possible trouble to come.

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Dr. Vera Etches, Ottawas medical officer of health, says the citys COVID-19 indicators are heading in a direction that could result in a third wave.

Tyson Grabor,associate research scientist and co-lead investigator of the wastewater monitoring program, toldCBC Thursday evening that the variant first identified in the U.K. is "now at detectable levels."

Traces remain low and the variants comprise"a minor proportion of active cases," Grabor said, adding things could change "very quickly."

Given this is potentially a huge problem for Ottawa, here's what you need to know about the variant situation right now.

How we test for variants

Viruses mutate all the time, and mutations are commonwith coronaviruses, according to Ottawa Public Health (OPH).

But the variants that were first identified in the U.K.(B117), South Africa (B1351)and Brazil (P1) are concerning to health officials because they spread more quickly, may make people sicker, or could be somewhat resistant to the current vaccines.

All three of these identified variants carry the same genetic marker, known as N501Y. When COVID-19 tests come back positive, they are initially screened for the N501Y marker on what's called aspike protein those little red protrusions you've seen on images of the virus. The results can take a few days.

If the mutation is detected, health officials assume the case involvesone of the variants of concern. But they won't know for sure which variant it is until further testingis completed a process that can take weeks.

• The challenge of tracking COVID variants explained
• Why are the variants more transmissible? Your COVID-19 questions answered

As of this week, the initial screening for the variant is now beingcompleted here in Ottawa, so we should havepreliminary results sooner, although the final work to identify the specific variant will still be completed by the provincial labs.

Variants indicate troubling trend

AsDoug Manuel, a senior scientist with The Ottawa Hospital, put it, the variant is"real and tangible and it will increase transmission."

But what exactly does it mean that Ottawa has73 probable cases involving variants?

Let's consider the math.

According to OPH data, 1,207 peoplecontractedcoronavirus in Ottawa in February, and it's only been since Feb. 3 that all positive test results have been screened for the variant.

Assuming all 73 casesare confirmed, that means81 or just less than seven per cent of all confirmedFebruary cases were variants. (Two variant cases were identified in January.)

Vaccine may protect against serious illness from virus variants, but you might still get sick

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Doug Manuel, a senior scientist with The Ottawa Hospital, says the vaccine may prevent serious illness and death with some variants of the COVID-19 virus, but it may not have as big an impact on transmission, meaning residents may still get sick.

Considering that modelling predicted that almost half of cases by the end of next week would be variants, seven per cent doesn't seem so bad.

• Variants will likely make up 40% of Ontario's COVID-19 cases by mid-March, modelling predicts
• Ontario faces third wave of COVID-19 pandemic if variants aren't controlled, modelling warns

The problem is that the seven-per-cent figure assumes the variant cases were evenly spread throughout the month of February. If they were concentrated in, say,the last two weeks, the proportion of cases involving variants of concern jumps to more than 16 per cent.

And remember, we have no information yet from the first few days of March, which saw the number of positive cases increase.

Even though we don't have data at our fingertips showing how quicklythe variants arespreading, experts sayit's almost certain that they are.

"We can see this happening in other places. It's likely to happen here," said Troy Day, a professor of mathematics and statistics at Queen's University anda member ofthe province's COVID-19 science advisory table.

Even worse, the situation can be deceptive, at least at first.

As the variants pickup steam in the community, the spread of the original strain decreases. So the total number of cases looks stable, untilthe variants become the dominant strain.

"And so the worry is that once that happens as it's likely to do in the next month, unless we do something more strictthe case counts will turn around and start going back up," said Day.

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Troy Day, a professor at Queen's University and a member of the province's science advisory table, says the fate of the COVID-19 pandemic may hinge on a race between variants of the virus and the speed of the vaccination campaign.

What we can do

Yes, people are sick of hearing about distancing and masking protocols. Manyhaven't seen our families and friends for the past year.

And yet, OPH reported an average of 5.5 close contacts for each positive case last week, when it was under three the week before a sign we are not all following the rules as closely as we should.

That's why it will come as no surprise what experts say has to happen in order to contain the virus spread.

Manuel and others question keeping non-essential businesses open.Places where people congregate, like restaurants, pose some risk. As well, Manuel said, behaviour changes when regions change colours.

"People do not want to hear this," said Manuel."It's hard to be the bearer of bad news."

Day agrees that "it's a tough call" to shut down society again, but points out thatOntario is following a similar path that the U.K. did before the variant ran rampant there.

"Maybe if we don't do anything now andthings magically turn out different here, all will be well," he said. "[But] there's no good reason to expect that that's going to be true."