COVID-19 likely in Ottawa before 1st case declared

Ottawa's first confirmed case of COVID-19 wasannounced way back on March 11, but public health officials now believe the illness was spreading in the community before that.

That first local case involveda man who had been to Austriaand who developed symptoms after returning to Ottawa. He went for a COVID-19 test at the General campus of The Ottawa Hospital, days before Ottawa Public Health (OPH) began opening dedicated testing sites in the city.

When OPH learns of an Ottawa resident'spositive test, they trace back to determine when and where theybecame "symptomatic, infectious and/or likely transmitting the virus," because that's the information that matters most.

"Given the commonly mild or asymptomatic nature of COVIDinfection, we often don't get a signal untilthe transmission has already been occurring in the community for some time, maybe even until a hospitalization occurs," Patrick Saunders-Hastings, an epidemiologist and risk scientist who teaches at Carleton University, told CBC last month.

That's why, months after reporting that first case on March 11, OPH revealed it had discovered a number of cases of people who hadneither left the province nor hadclose contact with another confirmed case, but who started experiencing symptoms and eventually tested positive for COVID-19 in early- to mid-March.

Dozens infected

Now, OPH believes dozens of Ottawa-area residentshad contracted the illness by March 11, which happensto be the same dayCOVID-19 was declared a pandemic.

In fact, the evidence now suggests Ottawa had its first case of COVID-19 a full month earlier, onFeb. 10.OPH also linked that case to travel, but hasn't determined whether theindividualwas in Ottawa while they were contagious.

OPH now believes there werethree more travel-related cases within two weeks, and that by March 11, the illness had likely spread to 61 residents.

'Alternative explanations'

According tothe province's public healthdata,Hastings Prince Edward Public Health, which coversBancroft, Belleville, Picton and Trenton, Ont.,loggeda positive COVID-19 case as early asFeb. 1.

But aspokesperson for the health unitcautioned that, as in Ottawa, where some of the earliestcases may have involved peoplewho were infected while travelling, itdoesn't necessarily mean COVID-19 was spreading throughthe area at thattime.

The spokesperson also noted that the similaritiesbetweenCOVID-19 and influenza symptoms may have confused matters.

"There are other alternative explanations, such as back-to-back [influenza and COVID-19] infections,which is more likely in this case," the spokespersonsaid.

The Eastern Ontario Health Unitalsotracedpossible COVID-19 cases before March, one in Prescott-Russell in mid-January and another in late February.