In Orlans, appetite for change threatens Liberal incumbent

It may be hard to imagine how a Liberal incumbent who won 53 per cent of the vote in 2014 would be in jeopardy in the June 7 Ontario election.

But Liberal Marie-France Lalonde's fortunes in Orlans may be more tied to the race for the Premier's office than her own performance in an electoral district that often votes as a province does.

The Liberal Party has had a historic advantage in Orlans, but the riding has supported Progressive Conservatives when the Tories were in power at Queen's Park, and, more recently, voted Conservative federally when Stephen Harper was prime minister.

During the 2011 election, when the Liberals were reduced to a minority government, in Orlans, the party won by just a few thousand votes.

You wouldn't know Lalonde was in a tough political fight when she canvassed at a seniors' residence last week chatting up voters with an ease that comes with her experience as a social worker, and the former owner of a similar seniors' home. On this day, it's a Liberal-friendly room.

"You can count on me," said one woman in French before the candidate had a chance to sit down.

But even here, there were those looking for change.

"I wish that you were running for the Conservatives," one resident told her.

"I know, but this is a choice I made," replied Lalonde, remaining cheerful.

"I know, you've done very well," teased the resident, "I'm just sorry you're not running for the other party."

It's not the first time she's been confronted with the "time for change" message, she conceded.

"This is definitely a part of the conversation," said Lalonde.

"But I tell people, I've been here for the past four years only. I was elected in 2014, I am a change," she said, describing the list of promises delivered to the riding during that period.

The Liberalshope they can count on ahistoric advantagewith the riding'slarge Francophone population, and havecommittedto build the province'sfirst French-language university.

PCs like their chances

The Progressive Conservatives, on the other hand, are counting on bellwether momentum and the desire for change, and the level of enthusiasm can be felt at the campaign headquarters on InnesRoad in the northeast end of the riding.

During a recent visit, half a dozen volunteers worked assembly-line style making lawn signs with the name of candidate Cameron Montgomery, and throughout the riding, blue signs rival red signs on most majorroads.

"There's been a lot of support,"Montgomery said.

When PC leader Doug Ford made a pre-campaign trip to Ottawa on Apr. 16,Orlanswas Ford's first stop, a decision Montgomery called "very symbolic."

Montgomery, who educates teachers who work with children with disabilities or mental health issues, has been campaigning for 18 months since his nomination. He's had his sights set on the Liberals, and said he'snot looking at his rear-view mirror at hisNDPcompetitor.

"I do not, quite frankly," he said. "They're verylate in the game."

NDPhaving late surge

But the NDP'srise in the polls is also late in the game, and now rivalsthe PCs in voter support across the province, taking even NDP candidates by surprise.

Orlans flag bearer BarbaraZarboni the head of the riding association only put her hat in the ring when two other candidates bowed out.

The party has only managed eight per cent of the vote in the riding, and her campaign headquarters is in the office of her home, but she's now going door to door telling voters if ever there was a chance to vote NDP, this was it.

"If I became your MPP, what would you want me to do?" she asked a homeowner during a day of canvassing.

Telling voters the race is neck and neck, she said she's seeing the excitement build.

"I never voted NDPbecause they never had a chance," said Jose Quiroga, aformer Liberal supporter.

His neighbour a PC supporter, may consider the NDP this time as well.

"We need change," said Michael Webber, "but we're completely undecided."

If the NDPmake significant gains in Orlans, it's not at all clear which of the other two main parties has the most to lose, making this traditionally bellwether riding less and less predictable as election day gets closer.