How Ottawa restaurants can survive the winter lull

In anticipation of a virtual holiday season, experts are offering restaurants some strategic advice on surviving a slow December and the upcoming winter lull.

"You expect ups and downs, but never in 35 years have I seen this," said David Hopkins, president of The Fifteen Group, who's given strategic advice and guidance to restaurants for decades."It keeps getting tougher and tougher."

Hopkins said 2020 has been unprecedented for restaurants with shutdowns and revenue losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic. With regions moving up and down Ontario'sfive-colour pandemic scale, it's "next to impossible" to plan.

Indoor dining reopened a month ago in Ottawa after a partial lockdown, with restrictions in place.

"[Ottawa's restaurants are] probably in a really challenging place right now in orange in ten days they could be in red zone and all the best plans go to waste," said Hopkins.

WATCH | Restaurant expert suggests waysto bring in revenue over the holiday:

Restaurants may need new strategies to get through holiday season, consultant says

4 years ago

Duration 1:13

David Hopkins, president of consulting firm The Fifteen Group, says restaurants should be looking at offering meal kits or gift certificates as a way to bring in revenue over the holiday season.

Many restaurants have historically relied on business in November and December to get them through what Hopkins calls "the terrible months" from January to March.

"On top of the pandemic circumstance, [the winter] can be extremely bleak," said Hopkins.

From meal kits to gift cards

Hopkins says he's recommending two thingsto restaurants right now.

"The holiday season was always about holiday parties," he said. "Restaurants need to figure out how they could pivot to capture some of that revenue."

Hopkins encourages restaurants to advertise individual meal kits for virtual office partiesto employers this year. Those meal kits could be delivered to the homes of employees, he said.

Secondly, because restaurants may be heavily relying on government wage and rent subsidies, Hopkins is recommending they sell as many gift cards as possible.

"If you sell over $50,000 of gift cards, that technically isn't a revenue," said Hopkins, explaining that the gift card sale is an exchange of payment method, so it won't affect applications for government subsidies. "It's 100 per cent money in the bank that they can hang on to and help them get through the pandemic."

Check your supply chain

"When those patios reopen in April, and the sun comes out ...the restaurant industry is going to come back strong," saidJeff Donaldson, a PhD candidate for public policy at Carleton University who specializes in small business emergency preparedness.

It's the interim between now and then that restaurants need to brace for, said Donaldson.

Restaurant staff should find other sources of income for the winter and not rely on the industry as their main source of income, he said.

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For business owners, Donaldson says make sure to have a backup supply chain for meat, produce and other productsthrough the winter and to be prepared for suppliers to also be hit hard by COVID-19.

"That's probably their largest risk. Other than cash flow maintenance and being able to stay open... the biggest thing they have to worry about is their supply chain."

He recommends restaurants simplifying their menus in a time of "economic shock."

"Bring it down to the basics. What sells well? How can I sell it?" said Donaldson.