P.E.I. close to 150,000 population target: Or is it?

P.E.I. is just a couple of hundred of people away from a target of 150,000 set by the provincial government, according to Statistics Canada, but final census calculations could change that estimate.

Figures released Thursday for the second quarter show a P.E.I. population of 149,790. That population would put the province in position to meet its target by the end of the year.

But last year's census suggested Statistics Canada's population estimates for P.E.I. may be out of whack.

• Census brings P.E.I.'s 150K population goal into question

The census showed a population for the Island that was four per cent lower than the estimate. Some undercount is normal, because the initial census counts only those included on returned forms, and some people are always missed.

But a four per cent undercount is unusually high. Typically, two per cent would be expected.

That would make the second quarter population just 146,794, and put the 150,000 target out of reach.

Statistics Canada will not reconcile population estimates with the census until September 2018. It will not be until then that we will know if the 2017 target was hit.

If the undercount does turn out to be two per cent, the target will be missed, but at the current rate of growth, the population will have reached 150,000 by the time we know it.

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