Conservatives might not sweep all seats in Sask., political watchers say

The Conservative Party of Canada swept all 14 of Saskatchewan's seats in the 2019 federal election, but political watcherssay there are some ridings that could flip on Sept. 20with enough momentum from the NDP or the Liberals.

That couldpotentially be "problematic" forthe Conservative Party's hopes of forminggovernment, says one expert.

Regina-Wascana, Regina-Lewvan, Saskatoon West and Desneth-Missinippi-Churchill River are the ridings that look too close to call in right now, according to a pollsterand a political science professorat the University of Saskatchewan.

Three of those ridingshad the province's closest races in 2019:

• In Saskatoon West, Conservative Brad Redekoppwon 48 per cent of the vote, defeatingNDP incumbent Sherri Benson, who got 40per cent, by just under 2,900 votes.
• In Desneth-Missinippi-Churchill River, ConservativeGary Vidal took 42 per cent of the vote, beating NDP incumbent Georgina Jolibois (28 per cent) and Liberal candidate Tammy Cook-Searson (26 per cent).
• In Regina-Wascana, Conservative Michael Kramtook 49 per cent of the vote, winning by a more than 7,000-vote margin overveteran Liberal MP Ralph Goodale, who had 34 per cent.

But this year, "if they have any aspirations of forming government," the Conservatives can't drop multiple seats in Saskatchewan, says Mainstreet Research vice-president Joseph Angolano.

"It just can't happen," the pollstersaid. "Losing one seat's bad, losing two seats is really bad. Losing three seats should be considered very problematic."

• Have an election question for CBC News? Email ask@cbc.ca or use this form. Your input helps inform our coverage.
• Compare the party platforms and see where the parties stand on the issues important to you.
• Use Vote Compass to compare the party platforms with your views.

Charles Smith, an associate professor focused on labour movementsin the political science department at the University of Saskatchewan, singled out thefour ridings he says have the potential to turn Liberalred or NDP orange because of the well-knowncandidates running in them.

Tria Donaldson, a racial equality and labour activist, is running in ReginaLewvan for the NDP. Robert Doucette, who was the president of the Mtis Nation-Saskatchewan, isrunning for the party in Saskatoon West.

Smith,who has supported provincial NDP campaigns, says Regina-Wascana isa competitive riding since it was theLiberals' lone Saskatchewan stronghold before 2019, represented byGoodalefrom1993 until Kram defeated him.Sean McEachernis now the Liberal candidate for the riding.

Meanwhile, havingBuckley Belanger Saskatchewan's longest-serving MLA running in Desneth-Missinippi-Churchill River for the Liberals couldboost the party's chances there,according to Smith.

ric Grenier, CBC'spolls analyst and the creator of thewrit.ca, agrees that the Liberals might be able to win in Desneth-Missinippi-Churchill River, thoughhe says it will be tough for thepartyto win Regina-Wascana without Goodale on the ballot.

Grenier, who compiles CBC's Poll Tracker,said in mid-August there was"potential that at the end of the election, Saskatchewan could be the most Conservative province in the country."

WATCH|Saskatchewan's tight races to watch in the upcoming federal election:

Saskatchewan's tight races to watch in the upcoming federal election

3 years ago

Duration 4:10

Polling analyst Eric Grenier breaks down which of the ridings in Saskatchewan will be close in Saskatchewan for the federal election

This week, he said that's still possible,if the NDP doesn't garner enough traction in Saskatoon and Regina.

• Find out who's ahead in the latest polls with our Poll Tracker.

Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor of political studiesat the U of S, says the Conservatives could struggle in Saskatoon and Regina ridings because they're more urban, as well as in Desneth-Missinippi-Churchill River, partly due to the larger Indigenous population that is less likely to support the party.

Move to centre could cost votes

Another reason that the Conservatives might not win all of Saskatchewan's seats is because of the provincial Saskatchewan Party government's response to the pandemic, according to Smith.

"The disgruntled majority in the provinces in Alberta and Saskatchewan who are angry at their provincial governments could take it out on the Conservatives nationally," Smith said.

The People's Party of Canada'sgrowing support could also play a role on election day, accordingto Westlake.

CBC's Poll Tracker earlier this week suggested the PPC could have the fourth-highest share of the vote on Sept. 20.

WATCH |Conservative Leader Erin O'Tooleasked about rising People's Party support:

Conservative leader is asked about the rising support in polls for the People's Party and its effect on the right-of-centre vote

3 years ago

Duration 1:04

Erin O'Toole spoke with the CBC's John Paul Tasker at a stop in Port Credit, Ont. on Friday.

"The Conservative Party has had to shift towards the centrein order to compete with the Liberals for swing voters," Westlake said.

"That makes them more vulnerable on the right flank. And so it's not unexpected in that kind of situation that some more right-leaning Conservatives would shift over to the People's Party."

There have been PPC signsat several protests across the country, including outside hospitals and at Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau's events.

"Some of those voters might say, even if it's strategically not advantageous, they might stick with the PPC if they feel the Conservative Party's moved too far to the centre," Westlake said.