Sunscreen instead of ski pants? What El Nio could mean for the upcoming Prairie winter

El Nio is making its return after a nearly eight-year hiatus, and forecasters say it couldimpact winter weather on the Prairies.

The climate pattern happens when the temperatureof Pacific Ocean waters along the equatoroff the coast of Peru rises above normal.

The air above that water then warms and moves northward.

In Western Canada, this intrusion of warmer air can changethe overall pattern ofthe polar jet streama narrow band of fast-moving air that separates colder weather to the northfrom milder weather to the south.

"El Nio conditions, in general, will give [the Prairies]warmer than average winters and drier than average winters," said Terri Lang, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada.

"Those moisture-bearing low pressure systems that travel along the jet will also be... further north."

Sunscreen over snow boots? How El Nino could make our Prairie winter warmer and drier than normal

10 months ago

Duration 1:59

For the first time since the winter of 2015/16, the Prairies are experiencing El Nino, a weather pattern originating in the Pacific Ocean that can make the winters warmer and drier than normal

But snowstorms and frigid temperatures are still possible, even in an El Nio winter, said Lang.

Are today's temperatures normal? See how the weather where you live compares to historical trends:

El Nio is the opposite of La Nia, where Pacific Ocean waters in the same regionare cooler than normal. This typically brings more moisture and colder than average temperatures to the Prairies.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) in the U.S. says the last three years have seen La Nia winters.

This El Nio could be stronger

The last El Nio, during the 2015-16 winter,was dubbed one of the stronger systemssince data collection began around 1900.

That winter, Pacific Oceantemperatures rose more than 2 C above average in the region of the Pacific called Nio 3.4 the areamostwatched to determine El Nio's strength.

That event left the Prairies up to 4 C warmer than normal from December through February. It also left an extreme moisture deficit.

Some climate agencies are predicting another strong El Nio this time around, with NOAAforecasting a 55 per cent chance of such an event.

David DeWitt, director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said Nio 3.4 temperatures are around 1.9 C above average and are expected to intensify through December.

But DeWittcautions against relying on sea surface temperatures alone as a predictor,sinceother seasonal weather phenomena across the globe could also impact El Nio's strength.

"You could have a relatively weak El Nio that has relatively strong impacts or you could have a very strong event that has relatively modest impacts," said DeWitt.

There is speculation that El Nio could increase temperatures even further in 2024 after 2023 ispoised to become the hottest year on record.

As of Nov. 9, NOAAwas predicting a 62 per cent chance that El Nio will continue during April through June2024.

Dry, warm fall continues on thePrairies

Environment Canada's Lang said that could further complicate things for thePrairies, especially after a record-shattering forest fire season and intense drought.

"We had a dry winter last winter, we had a dry spring, we had a dry summer" Lang said.

"The whole summer, most of Western Canada was on fire. We went through a dry fall, so coming into another dry winter could be really, really problematic."

The latest drought datashows most of the Prairies are drier than normal, with parts of southern Alberta experiencing "exceptional" drought.

Data as of Nov. 24 from Environment Canadashows many Prairie cities may already be seeing El Nio's effects.

Calgary usually sees an average daytime high of 3.4 C in November. This month it's been 8.7 C.

Edmonton, Saskatoon, Regina and Winnipeg have alsobeen above their monthly averages so far.

Edmonton International Airporthasn't reported any snow this month and it could soon be thefirst snowless Novembersince the airport's weather station opened in 1960.

Saskatoon barelyhasmeasurable snow on the ground. The average snow depth at the end of November is usually around four centimetres.

Volunteer reports from around thatcity via CoCoRaHS(the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network) show only up to 1.8 centimetresfell between Nov. 1 and 24, with the averagesnowfall in November being 13.4 centimetres.

Regina, meanwhile, has received around 17 centimetres so far in November more than the monthly average of 13 centimetres. Almost all of that fellin less than two hours on Nov. 7, due toan intense band of snow.