Forecasts calling for mild winter after a cool and dry 2018

Though December was mild in Saskatchewan, much of 2018 was not. The numbers are in, and most of the province came in cooler than normal.

According to Environment and Climate Change Canada, many regions in Saskatchewan averaged around a degree below normal for the annual mean temperature.

Some of the greatest departures from normal were found in the north. Key Lake saw annual mean temperatures 1.7 C below normal, making it the fourth coldest year since records began 37 years ago.

Why was Sask. cooler than normal?

A couple of bitterly cold runs, plus a long and cold winter, wereresponsible for our below-average temperatures.

Last winter arrived early, and although December 2017 and January 2018 were close to or warmer than normal, February brought in frigid temperatures that lasted until the spring.

In February, mean temperatures were around 6 C below normal in both Regina and Saskatoon. By Feb.9, Regina had already doubled the number of frigid days, with five days below -30 C.

DavidPhillips,a senior climatologist with Environment Canada,says last year's wintry weather lastedalmost six months in the Prairies, which often isn't the case.

"It was a long winter in most parts of Canada and certainly in Saskatchewan." says Phillips. "We saw a lot more days where the temperatures were below -20, but what was different about last year is [winter] began early and went late. It began almost in November and went right through until April."

Forecast leaning on the warm side

This winter seemsto be following suit with the last so far, as colder-than-normal temperatures rolled in for the fall. According to Phillips, it was the coldest fall in about 22 years in the Prairies. That cold weather faltered in December though, as temperatures averaged around 3 C above normal in most of the province.

Last week, temperatures stayed on the warm side, with warm Pacific air flooding the province, bringing warmer-than-normal conditions.

According to Phillips, latest weather models are showing milder-than-normal conditions across all of Saskatchewan for the winter,as a weak El Nino has set up. That being said, you can still see drastic temperatures swings over the Prairies as cold weather can roll in from the Arctic.

"When you have those extremes of Arctic air and Pacific air, I mean it's like a battleground sometimes with temperatures that are very different, and that's the way it will probable play out. Over the long term though, the next three months or so, the flavour or the personality of that period will likely be warmer than normal."

One of those swings is on the way, as it looks like the province will see a return of more typical winter weather, with temperatures jumping down into the minus teens, feeling like the -30s by Tuesday.

Above-seasonal temperatures should return to southern and central Saskatchewan by the end of the work week.

Unprecedented dry conditions

The year 2018 was below normal not only in temperatures, but also in precipitation. After the drought conditions set up in the summer of 2017, the south of the province did not see a lot of relief in 2018.

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According to Environment and Climate Change Canada, Moose Jaw saw its fourth driest year on record with only around 230 millimetres of precipitation, when it should typically see 365 millimetres.

Saskatoon came in as the second driest year on record with only 210 millimetres of precipitation, and even Regina was well below normal, seeing only 60 per cent of its typical annual precipitation levels.

"The last two years in Regina, there has never been two drier back-to-back years in the historical record that goes back to the 1880s." says Phillips. "With more El Nino events, precipitation tends to be on the low side. However, the precipitation that you get from those Pacific air streams tends to have more water content instead of being water-starved. So at least if the frequency of these things is less, at least the ones you do get have the potential for more lasting rescue kind of moisture."

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