'Landslide' win possible for Michael Fougere as pollster examines Regina mayoralty race

A polling company says people in Regina may not know that the city is in the middle of a municipal election campaign but among those who are aware, incumbent mayor Michael Fougere is the favoured candidate.

"It looks like Michael Fougere is headed towards a landslide win," pollster David Valentin, from Mainstreet Research, said of polling data commissioned by PostMedia. "The only question at this point is exactly how much he will win by."

Our suspicion is few are aware an election is taking place.- David Valentin

According to Mainstreet, a poll conducted Wednesday night of eligible Regina voters found that Fougere was the preference of 41 per cent of those who responded.

The question was: If an election for Mayor of Regina were held today, which candidate would you vote for?

There are five candidates: Wayne Ast, Jim Elliott, Tony Fiacco, Michael Fougere and Evangeline Godron.

Ast and Fiaccoeachattracted four per cent of favourable responseswhile Elliott and Godron were each preferred by two per cent.

The number of undecided voters was very high, Valentin noted.

"With many residents undecided (46%), our suspicion is few are aware an election is taking place at all," he said.

Valentin also observed that there did not appear to be much activity on the campaign trail.

"There has been a noticeable absence of lawn signs, campaign events and announcements so far."

Election blogger jealous of tight Saskatoon race

David Robert Loblaw ran for mayor of Regina as a university student in 1982. He lost, badly.

He has been an election junkie ever since and decided to blog the lighter side ofthis year's election.

He said people in Regina seem to be paying less attention to the election than their counterparts in Saskatoon.

"They(Saskatoon)had over 500 people at their mayoral debate. It was incredible and we had 40. It's eerie the difference. It's not even close," Loblaw said.

Loblawwas also critical of the efforts of candidates.

"I don't think I've seen a group of ill-prepared new candidates ever before. A lot of them are very qualified, make great councillors but they seem to have put no thought into their campaign," Loblaw said.

Nocontest, no interest says political scientist

"What gets people interested is a contest. That's what we're seeing in Saskatoon. Folks are more interested because there's an actual debate going," said JimFarney,a professor of political science at the University of Regina.

With a low voter turnout, Farney said those who end up elected receive support of only a select few citizens.

"If only 20 per cent of people turn out, even a landslide victory only means one in sixor onein sevenpeople supported you for mayor."

In 2012, MichaelFougere was elected mayor with43 per cent of the vote. 33 per cent of people in Regina voted.

• Voter turnout crawls upward in Saskatoon, Regina

In 2009, PatFiaccowas elected to his fourth termwith 84 per cent of the vote There was a 21 per cent turnout.

• Incumbent mayors post wins in civic elections

"I think you get better politics when you get contested elections and realdebate," Farney said.

The poll showed people believe municipal politics are important but they are the least interested in them. Farney suggested improvingvoter education to show people how decisions by mayor and council affect their every day lives.

Fougere does well among decided/leaning voters

When the undecided voters were factored out, Fougere was found to have support of 73 per cent of decided and leaning voters, Mainstreet's poll said. The others in the race polled at eight or nine per cent.

The polling data also noted that while people considered municipal government relatively important in their lives, compared to governments at the provincial or federal level, not so many people were as attracted to local politics.

Here's how people responded to the question, "To which election process do you pay the most attention?":

• Federal: 42 per cent.
• Provincial: 23 per cent.
• Municipal: 13 per cent.
• Not sure: 22 per cent.

Municipal elections are set for Oct. 26.

The Mainstreet poll was based on telephone interviews with 603 people who were selected at random based on cellphone and land line numbers. A probabilistic sampleofthis size would yield amarginoferrorof+/- 3.99%, 19 times outof20.