Building permit data hints at Sask. population boom levelling off

Some Saskatchewan communities have seen big spikes in population in the past five years, but it appears that boom has started to level off.

In Warman, Sask., a bedroom community of Saskatoon, the population jumped more than 55 per cent between 2011 and 2016 to nearly 11,000 people, making it the fastest-growing community in the province, according to census data released Wednesday morning.

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Martensville, Sask., saw 23.6-per-cent growth over the same period to 9,533 people. Saskatoon's population grew by more than 24,000 people, or more than 11 per cent. Regina's population grew by about 22,000 people.

Building permits dropping

Chris Gurette, CEO of the Saskatoon and Region Home Builders' Association, said the statistics match what builders in the region have reported.

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"It's no surprise to see those numbers," she said."Certainly [it's] a very active market and that's because people are moving to Saskatoon and area."

But data suggests that activity has slowed slightly.

According to Statistics Canada, building permit activity in the Saskatoon area dropped by nearly 30 per cent,from $84.1 million to $59 million, between December 2015 and December 2016.

"We saw peaks in 2012 and 2013 that we had not seen before and so we had an industry that was working very hard to keep up with demand," Gurette said.

"So when there was a dip ... certainly it was a dip compared to our highs. There's still a very strong demand for single-family units."

Alan Wallace, Saskatchewan planning lead with V3 companies of Canada, cautions that the growth numbers don't take the recent downturn into effect.

"What you're looking at is a snapshot of Saskatoon and area over the last five years between 2011 and 2016," Wallace said. "It's not reflective of our current economic situation or our current growth."

Wallace added that data from the next census could look very different if the economic slowdown continues.

School growth levelling

The Prairie Spirit School Division has also seen the number of new students level off year over year.

Between the 2011-12 school year and the 2015-16 school year, the division saw its student population grow by more than 1,000. A total of 364 new students started in the division in the 2015-16 school year alone, but that number dropped off to just 192 new students in 2016-17, according to data provided by the school division.

The school division said most of the growth occurred in schools inWarmanandMartensville.

Despite growth appearing to slow,Gurettesaid it's still a strong market.

"As long as we have people coming to Saskatoon and region we will have a very healthy Saskatoon," she said.

Growth 'amazing' to see

For people who live and work in the city, the growth the past few years have brought has been interesting to see.

"It's amazing actually to see the growth," said Courtenay Chudy, sales manager at Warman Homes, a home builder and seller in the community.

"I myself have lived in town about fouryears and you wouldn't believe the way it looked before and we just keep growing every day."

Chudy said business was swift between 2012 and 2014, but saw about a 25-per-cent decline in 2015. Last year, businesses picked up again slightly.