Ontario PC Leader Patrick Brown 'confident' as byelection day dawns

A seat in the legislature is at stake Thursday for the new leader of Ontario's Progressive Conservatives.

Patrick Brown has not been able to face off in question period against Premier Kathleen Wynne and her Liberal government since winning the PC leadership on May 9, but he could soon have that opportunity.

Brown is running in Thursday's byelection in Simcoe North, a riding that stretches from Orillia to Penetanguishene. It's about as safe a PC seat as there is in this province: the last time a Liberal won in this area, the riding was called Simcoe East, and the year was 1934.

"We feel very confident," Brown told me over the phone. "I've had four federal elections and two municipal and I don't think it's ever been as positive as this one."

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So if Brown were to lose here, it's no exaggeration to say it would trigger a huge crisis in the PC leader's office.

If he wins, Brown will take his seat in the legislature as leader of the Official Opposition when Queen's Park resumes sitting on Sept.14.

Byelections are often seen as a referendum on the governing party.But in this case, it's really all about Patrick Brown.

The Liberal campaign is taking a two-pronged attack against Brown: labelling him as anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage, and trying to paint him as parachute candidate who's not committed to the people of Simcoe North.

Liberal candidate Fred Larsen, a former teacher from Orillia, is on his third try to win the seat. He has lived in the riding for 40 years. "Patrick doesn't have that knowledge of the riding," said Larsen. He criticizes Brown for refusing to commit to running in Simcoe North in the next provincial election in 2018.

"I'm not at all sure that that's good for us here in Simcoe North. They deserve a candidate who's going to stay and represent the riding."

'I'm a SimcoeCounty guy'

It's a tactic that worked before for the Liberals against a seatless PC leader. The voters of Haliburton Kawartha Lakes Brock rejected John Tory (now the mayor of Toronto)in 2009, triggering his resignation as leader.

"Everyone in the riding knows that I'm a Simcoe County guy," said Brown, who was the Conservative MP for Barrie from 2006 until switching to provincial politics this year. "My family's been in Simcoe County for 70 years. My parents have a residence in Oro-Medonte in the southern part of the riding and I'm in the process myself of moving into Oro-Medonte."

Brown also dismisses the other prong of the Liberal critique.

"I have said again and again and again that I support same-sex marriage," said Brown. "I've made it clear that we're not going to revisit the abortion debate."

Brown said the Liberals are throwing "the kitchen sink" at him in the campaign. "They have ministers visiting every day. The riding is full with Wynne's Queen's Park staffers up here. The premier has been here numerous times. I think that's a surprise during a byelection."

Meanwhile, the New Democrats are trying to win votes by attacking the government's plan to sell off most of Hydro One.

"The sale of Hydro One is a very big concern for people," said NDP candidate Elizabeth Van Houtte. "With privatizing this asset, people are very, very worried. They are worried they won';t be able to afford a basic need such as electricity."

Van Houtte is also using the outsider label against Brown.

"People are saying 'Who is Patrick Brown?'" said Van Houtte. "My response is: 'You want someone who's going to keep their roots planted here in Simcoe North and look out for the best interests of people here.'"

The Green Party candidate is Valerie Powell.