How Ontario's latest housing plan encourages sprawl

Premier Doug Ford's government says its new rules for land use in Ontario will increase the pace of housing construction, but a closer look at the proposed changes calls that claim into question.

The government's proposal would overhaul Ontario's two major policies for land-use planning: one applies to the Greater Golden Horseshoe, stretching from Peterborough to Barrie to Niagara, the other applies everywhere else.

The new set of land-use guidelines would apply across the province and is "housing-focused," says Steve Clark, the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing.

"It would give municipalities more flexibility, reduce duplication, create more homes in urban and rural communities, support local economies and create jobs," Clark said in a news conference at Queen's Park Thursday afternoon.

Land-use policies matterfor a host of reasons. They affect how much housing gets built in cities, they influence what purposes land can be used for and they dictate where industrial, commercial and housing developments should or should not go.

So when the government proposes fundamental changes, it's crucial to look at the fine print.

For instance, Ontario's existing plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe sets out minimum density targets for new development on unbuilt land. It says cities "will plan" for a minimum density target of at least 50 residents and jobs combined per hectare.

Under the previous Liberal government, the requirement called for at least 80 residents and/or jobs per hectare, an effort to force greater density on the suburban cities of the Greater Toronto Area.

The proposal released Thursdayeffectively scraps density targets for newly developed land altogether.

"Large and fast-growing municipalities are encouraged to plan for a minimum density target of 50 residents and jobs per gross hectare," says the proposed policy.

The change in wording is subtle, but important. It's hard to see how the provincial government can possibly enforce something that it merely "encourages" municipalities to do.

Eric Lombardi, part of the volunteer-run housing advocacy group More Neighbours Toronto, says the government's new plan won't put the kind of housing people want to buy in the places they want to be.

"Until we allow more housing to be built in the GTA in existing neighbourhoods, there's no way out of this housing crisis," said Lombardi in an interview. "Nothing I saw today addresses this core challenge."

The plan does maintain the government's push to boost density around major transit hubs such as subways, GO stationsand light-rapid transit stops.

Yet it also allows cities to spread out housing developments further away from their cores. The proposal would make it easier for cities to expand their boundaries, which allows for development on the suburban fringes.

The Ford government forcedboundary expansions on Ottawa and Hamilton last fall. The moves effectively paved the way for farmland to be turned into housing, making that land a lot more valuable, a big win for its owners.

The government's critics are united in their claims that the changes will do more to encourage sprawl than jolt the construction of new homes.

The changes would "kneecap housing supply efforts and unleash unprecedented sprawl," said the advocacy group Environmental Defence in a news release.

The group says the proposal would scrap an existing requirement that regions like Peel, York, Halton and Waterloo build at least half of new homes on land that already has municipal infrastructure.

Jessica Bell, the NDP's housing critic, says the moves will open up more farmland for development.

"What worries me is the Conservatives are going to continue down their trajectory of doubling down on suburban sprawl, which is incredibly expensive, and not doing the right thing, which is to really encourage the construction of homes in neighbourhoods people want to live in," Bell told a news conference at Queen's Park.

Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner said in a statement that the proposed changes "are designed to open the floodgates to reckless, expensive sprawl while doing nothing to address the housing crisis."

Freeing up more land for development is a central part of the Ford government's action on housing, most controversially by exempting 15 parcels of land from Ontario's Greenbelt protection.

Yet it's far from clear that more land is what's really needed to boost the housing supply.

Municipalities across the province have already approved permits for developers to build 1.2 million homes that are yet to be constructed, according to a recent report from Ontario's regional planning commissioners.

Officially, the land-use proposals unveiled Thursday are not set in stone. The document is now posted for two months of public consultation. But because it's a policy document rather than a bill, Ford's cabinet has total control over its fate, and it doesn't have to go before the Legislature for a vote.

While Clark said he looked forward to hearing feedback on the proposed changes, he staunchly defended them during his news conference

"We're in a housing supply crisis," Clark said. "We believe as a government that all of Ontario is a place to grow no matter whether you live in the north, you live in eastern Ontario or southwestern Ontario."

As for watering down the density targets for newly developed land, Clark's spokesperson said in a statement that the changes "would give municipalities flexibility to plan for a range and mix of housing to meet local needs."

Clark said the government is "not backing down" on its promise to get 1.5 million new homes constructed over the 10-year period leading up to 2031.

Yet the government's own budget forecasts for new home constructionover the next three years sit at roughly 80,000 per year. That's nowhere near the annual pace Ontario needs to hit its target.