Toronto's flu season is underway but it's too soon to tell how bad it will be, says an expert

Toronto's flu season has begun but it's not yet clear how bad it's going to be,says an expert in influenza who works at Mount Sinai Hospital.

But Dr. AllisonMcGeer,microbiologist and and infectious disease consultant in the hospital'sdepartment of microbiology, says early signs suggestit could be a "pretty average" season.

"The flu season is only just starting, which is nice for people who work in hospitals over Christmas because it hasn't been so busy. But it still means it's too early to tell how bad it's going to be, or how well the vaccine is going to work,"McGeersaid.

Flu seasons in Toronto have started as early as the end of November and as late as February, but frequently at Christmas, the city has been in the middle of it.

This year,it's running a little bit later. It should peak in second or third week of January and end by the end of February or beginning of March, saysMcGeer.

McGeer sayswinter viral illnesses are divided into two categories, influenza and "everything else," which includes "the sniffles." There has been a lot of "everything else," she said.

"Flu is really variable," she said. "Last year, we had a flu season that peaked in the first week of January so there was a lot of disease over Christmas. But it doesn't always do that."

She saysthe city is now seeing more cases than in some previous years, but fewer cases than last year. The number of cases could mean either the season is going to be quieter than last year or it is simply starting later.

According to Toronto Public Healthfor the week of Dec. 10 to Dec. 16, in its Weekly Influenza News summary, there were 33 new laboratory-confirmed cases of flu reported in the city.

That number is higher than the 24 cases reported the previous week. The city says 139 cases have been reported so far this season.

McGeer says there are a number of influenza strains in competition. "This is a really interesting year."

The vaccine works better for some strains than for others and it's hard to predict how well the vaccine will work this year given the number of strains, she added.

As forinstitutional outbreaks, the city says there were fourreported in the week ofDec. 10 to 16. There have been 11 n total so far this year. Institutions include long-term care homes, acute care hospitals, complex care hospitals, special care facilities, retirement homes and rehabilitation hospitals.

McGeer says four in one weekis"relatively speaking, a small number," but generallya sign that the flu season is underway.

Flu shot 'much better than nothing'

"Each one of those outbreaks is obviously disruptive and frustrating for everyone concerned, and dangerous for the residents of those facilities, but on what we're expecting, it's still telling us that this is early in the flu season," she said.

McGeer said the flu shot is "much better than nothing," but people are running out oftime to get vaccinated.

"It takes two weeks after you get your flu shot for it to work, so if you haven't had your flu shot and you want it, this would be a really good week to go to your pharmacy and get it," she said.

Shealso recommends the following to prevent the spread of flu:

• Wash your hands often.
• Avoid touching your eyes and face.
• Cover your cough or sneeze.
• Do not share drinking cups and utensils.
• Clean and disinfect common surfaces, such asdoor handles, cell phones andkeyboards.