Michigan House races will test Democrats' grasp on the state government trifecta

The same Michigan voters Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris needs in the critical swing state will also determine whether her party maintains its foothold on state government two years after pulling off a historic sweep.

Michigan Democrats enacted a strong progressive agenda following the 2022 midterms when they won control of both chambers of the Legislature and the governor's office for the first time in nearly four decades.

While the state Senate isn't on Tuesday's ballot, Democrats could risk losing their two-seat majority in the state House and potentially hamper Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's ability to enact even more items on her priority list during her final two years in office.

"We've been able to get some great things done, but on the slimmest of margins," Whitmer said at a recent press conference.

Michigan is one of several states where the political balance of one or more chamber of the Legislature could flip, with Arizona, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin among the other targets for both parties.

Whitmer, who is considered a rising Democratic star on the national level, spent the first six years of her tenure working with a Republican-controlled Legislature. But a Democratic-led state government trifecta was necessary the last two years to pass such things as gun control measures and tax policy, she said.

Democrats focus on protecting reproductive rights as their pitch for keeping hold of all facets of state government even though abortion access is enshrined in the state's constitution.

Republican candidates are trying to convince voters that Democratic control at home and in Washington, D.C., has eroded their pocketbooks and public safety.

"We need to bring things back under control in our state government," said Bill G. Schuette, chair of the Michigan House Republican Campaign Committee.

In the Downriver area south of downtown Detroit, former elementary school teacher Jaime Churches is focusing on reproductive rights and infrastructure as she seeks a second term in the state House two years after winning the seat by just 660 votes.

"I knew how tough it was last time and I knew what it took for me to get there," Churches said in an interview at her campaign office in Trenton, Michigan.

The suburban district where Churches, 36, is running against 22-year-old Republican Rylee Linting is comprised of a handful of small cities and towns in the southern stretch of the populous Wayne County on the west side of the Detroit river. It's home to union workers and primarily middle-class earners.

While the candidates are riding the wave of momentum from the top of the ticket, they are looking to distinguish themselves by focusing on local matters.

Linting, a state GOP youth vice chair who was involved with Charlie Kirk's conservative Turning Point USA in Michigan, is running on a message of small government and promoting conservative ideals in education. She says her youth offers a fresh perspective on politics that is appealing to voters in the district.

"It's really my generation that's going to have to face the consequences of poor policy decisions in Lansing," Linting said in an interview.

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In the midterms, a citizen-led ballot initiative to protect abortion access helped deliver Democratic victories. Frank Hamet, a Republican precinct delegate to Flat Rock, said the turnout for the presidential election will likely have a similar impact on the competitive Downriver races.

Hamet said some blue-collar workers concerned about the cost of living are turning to Trump, a possible signal of danger for Democratic legislative candidates.

"People, if they're frustrated with how things are, then you run the risk of voters just wanting to clear everybody out," he said.

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The national Legislative Campaign Committee announced in September it was contributing $500,000 more in 13 targeted races in Michigan. The latest campaign finance reports in the state show the group has has spent over $3.5 million.

The Republican State Leadership Committee did not respond to an inquiry about investments in Michigan, but recent campaign finance reports show its Michigan PAC has spent $1.6 million this year.

Groups aligned with Democrats and Republicans had previously planned to pour hundreds of millions of dollars into state legislative battles, with more than 5,800 legislative seats in 44 states up for election this year.

Democrats in Wisconsin head into November with hopes of retaking control of the Assembly for the first time since 2011 and making enough gains in the Senate with the goal of seizing the majority in that chamber in two years.

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In neighboring Minnesota, Gov. Tim Walz - Harris' vice presidential running mate - capitalized on a Democratic trifecta to enact a sweeping progressive agenda. That could be at stake this year as a special election for an open seat will determine which party controls the Minnesota Senate, which is currently tied, while Republicans need a net pickup of just four seats to take control of the state House.

While New Hampshire's 24-member Senate has been more reliably Republican, control of the 400-member House flipped in six of the last 10 elections. The margin in the House narrowed in 2022, and changes since then have left the chamber with 197 Republicans, 191 Democrats, one independent and 11 vacancies. Being so closely divided, neither party enacted sweeping changes over the last two years.

If Republicans take the Michigan House, Democrats will likely rush to pass a voting rights package and other legislation during the lame duck period between Election Day and when the new Legislature is sworn in.

Whitmer said while the presidential election tends to draw the most attention, the down-ballot races are just as important.

"Who is elected in the Legislature matters profoundly to your day to day life," Whitmer said.

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